#2681


#2682
what the hell is Riad Darar doing, I thought he came out saying the SDF was planning to fold into the SAA just the other day?

source is anti-Bashar in the extreme so it might be disinfo but i haven't kept up with SDF-government talks https://syrianobserver.com/EN/news/47613/secret-meeting-between-sdc-and-government.html
#2683

damoj posted:

i'm trying to imagine a 'roided Delta dude with deathshead tattoos on his balls shedding a tear while telling a Bookchin-reading YPJ 16 year-old he has to go to his home planet now


#2684
like, here is a truly dangerous human being. think of how many people are alive today because she did not win the election.
#2685

ghostpinballer posted:

honest question, which minorities have they been suppressing? i remember the UN accused them of ethnic cleansing a while ago and then retracted when it came out they'd evacuated some villages, then helped the residents to return after a fight with ISIS. I've had a look around and can't find anything.
edit: i mean, I'm not about to die on this hill so if what you say is true then ofc it's bad.



gamers

#2686

ghostpinballer posted:

honest question, which minorities have they been suppressing? i remember the UN accused them of ethnic cleansing a while ago and then retracted when it came out they'd evacuated some villages, then helped the residents to return after a fight with ISIS. I've had a look around and can't find anything.
edit: i mean, I'm not about to die on this hill so if what you say is true then ofc it's bad.



https://gowans.wordpress.com/2017/07/11/the-myth-of-the-kurdish-ypgs-moral-excellence/
http://en.rnp-f.org/2015/03/24/pkk-and-imperialism/#

i haven't read these in a while but i think they cover different aspects of it

#2687

Lots of stuff on Assyrian issues in Iraq and Syria on the Max J. Joseph's twitter (@DeadmanMax). From what I can tell, accusations of YPG ethnically cleansing Assyrians don't really hold water though there are certain chauvinist policies, such as forcing schools to use Kurdish textbooks with nationalist propaganda.
#2688
i few years ago i got a ride from a cab driver in chicago who was assyrian, alleged several of his extended family still in syria were killed when the ypg rolled into their village. ypg then kidnapped some priests and old folks for ransom and to help the village stay compliant. this in response to me asking how he was doing

there was a huge icon of assad hanging from his rearview mirror
#2689
thanks for the article. i read it, and while much of it is informative, some of it strikes me as a bit dubious and kind of weak; the ethnic cleansing incidents the author refers to seem to be the same ones i mentioned previously, which after investigation turned out not to be true. i have read they massacred surrendering nusra fighters during the battle for aleppo (in tandem with the SAA), and they killed some ISIS prisoners during the liberation of raqqa, etc, but it's a bit hard for me to care very much about that. each dead jihadi = syria another step closer to peace, imo.

i don't want to derail the thread any more than i already have, tho, so i'm going to put a sock in it re: the YPG for the foreseeable.
#2690
here's a report on assyrian/kurdish issues of the sort mentioned, focusing on the KRG rather than the YPG

overall i haven't heard as much about these sorts of tensions in syria as iraq, though
#2691
the kurds appear to be uncucked




#2692

#2693
failing british journalist oz katurji is pissing blood that erdogans genpcide scheme has been thwarted
#2694
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thxkhGqTdPg

Utter silence. That is the sound of Western corporate media days after a more than one-hour-long panel on the White Helmets at the United Nations on December 20...the silence is due to the irrefutable documentation presented on the faux-rescue group’s involvement in criminal activities, which include organ theft, working with terrorists — including as snipers — staging fake rescues, thieving from civilians, and other non-rescuer behaviour.



^with the important caveat that i'm quoting geopolitics.com so i honestly don't know how legit any of this is.

i don't have time to check all the names involved in the panel but despite beeley's involvement, they apparently interviewed over 300 syrians/mercenaries/assorted medical experts, including former WH members and civilians present in aleppo during the worst of the #holocaustaleppo #whitehelmets propaganda push. however i remember reading the same plausible-but-not-verified organ theft stuff about the kla. it's believable but also i'm reluctant to buy it wholesale without some solid, solid evidence, i feel we harm our case when we do so.

Edited by ghostpinballer ()

#2695
i dont follow her closely so forgive me asking, what's wrong with beeley?
#2696

Petrol posted:

i dont follow her closely so forgive me asking, what's wrong with beeley?


im the same, so it's my own personal thing tbh. I've just never quite trusted her.

#2697
Beeley is a for real crypto-fascist "libertarian", not just the type that libcom likes to scare you with in bedtime stories before you go to sleep. She's also admitted in DMs that she believes Assad tortured people, but would never say it publicly. So she's probably on the payroll of the Syrian state to some degree. That has nothing to do with the credibility of the White Helmets (near vanishing), nor does it havd anything to do with a lot of her reporting, which hasn't been unreliable.

Edited by Parenti ()

#2698
Thanks, not really shocking to hear of someone who appears so regularly on RT tbh
#2699
bit of an effort post again i suppose




holy shit

anyway, according to syrian war map, turkish-backed jihadis are hitting kurdish forces near manbij despite what this says

https://www.rt.com/news/447961-kurds-withdrawal-manbij-syria/

...yet YPG fighters are being bussed out, which means sooner or later these contra guys are going to unwittingly hit an SAA position and get absolutely fucked. what are the chances of an all-out clash between the turkish forces/turkish proxies and the SAA? would russia really let that happen?

https://ejmagnier.com/2019/01/02/trump-bows-to-domestic-pressure-by-delaying-his-withdrawal-from-syria-a-storm-is-gathering-in-the-levant/

2019 will mark the return of the northeast province to the control of the Syria government forces; Turkey is choosing its camp; and the Arabs – afraid of becoming orphans like the Kurds – are overwhelming Assad with their warmth, acting as though they had not been waging war on his country since 2011.



lol that last sentence is so good. magnier has generally accurately called the war almost move-for-move so i'm inclined to trust what he says.

No matter whether Trump decides to delay or speed up his withdrawal, the Kurdish YPG/PKK have chosen their camp next to Damascus.



plus i love his heroically garbled english. also you can practically hear the orchestra rising in the background as you read this, over a slo-mo image of the syrian flag flying:

Turkey will take further positive steps towards Assad, who today enjoys a more prestigious position than at any time since 2011. Indeed the Levant is returning to the centre of Middle East and world attention in a stronger position than in 2011. Syria has advanced precision missiles that can hit any building in Israel. Assad also has an air defence system he would have never dreamt of before 2011 thanks to Israel’s continuous violation of its airspace and its defiance of Russian authority. Hezbollah has constructed bases for its long and medium range precision missiles in the mountains and has created a bond with Syria that it could never have established if not for the war. Iran has established a strategic brotherhood with Syria thanks to its role in defeating the regime change plan. NATO’s support for the growth of ISIS has created a bond between Syria and Iraq that no Muslim or Baathist link could ever have created: Iraq has a “carte blanche” to bomb ISIS locations in Syria without the consent of the Syrian leadership (following Assad’s total blessing to the Iraqi leadership to join in the fight on ISIS), and the Iraqi security forces can walk into Syria anytime they see fit to fight ISIS. The anti-Israel axis has never been stronger than it is today. That is the result of 2011-2018 war imposed on Syria.



it really could go either way now. trump is done, he's finished with this whole thing. doubtless there'll be massive pushback from the media, and ofc some of his spooks and generals but even they have to recognise this is futile now. the jihadi militias are mostly fighting amongst themselves when they're not trying to take potshots at SAA and civilians. so imo turkey v syria is the next thing to watch for, w/ manbij as the flashpoint. either it's wrapping up (which tbf we've been saying for around 2 years now) or it could enter into a new phase if violence erupts between the syrian and turkish forces.

edit: one more caveat - i'm terrible at predicting anything so i'm probably wrong about what the thing to watch for is

#2700

ghostpinballer posted:

The anti-Israel axis has never been stronger than it is today.



blessed be

#2701
well, a very important turkish army general just got moved to an insignificant position and it s probably because of syrian drama. when we launched the invasion of afrin, SAA tried to send some troops there and we bombed them. apparently this general was the guy who ordered the bombing and he was upset about our "reluctance" to enter manbij and wanted to order the troops to invade once again, so now he got "promoted" to some inspection office instead. i guess we got some secret agreement with russians or some shit
#2702
Addressing his deputies on Tuesday, Erdogan said he held a "quite positive" telephone conversation with Trump late on Monday where he reaffirmed "a 20-mile security zone along the Syrian border ... will be set up by us".

Erdogan said he viewed the planned security zone in Syria positively and added its range may be extended further.

seems like erdogan can get whatever he w ants when he gets on the phone with Trump
#2703
has trump agreeing to something an actual indicator that he will actually do it? im not trying to be snide here, really, im actually curious how often his administration follows up on these sorts agreements.
#2704
oh definitely not, but it does make it a little more likely hes doing it i think. the US had begun to withdraw allegedly https://www.vox.com/2019/1/11/18178304/syria-withdraw-troop-trump-bolton-pompeo

btw 4 american invaders got blown up by isis today. i dont want to get too tinfoil but part of trump's basis for leaving was that isis is beaten sooo ???
#2705
#2706
US army releases history of the iraq war and subsequent developments, 2003 to 2014.

http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1373
http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1376
#2707

ghostpinballer posted:

US army releases history of the iraq war and subsequent developments, 2003 to 2014.

http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1373
http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/display.cfm?pubID=1376



Iraq’s WMD program had been a major U.S. and international security concern since
the end of the Gulf war. After 9/11, U.S. policymakers worried that Saddam’s WMD
materials would fall into terrorist hands, and CENTCOM, along with the rest of the
U.S. intelligence community, assumed that Saddam would, at a minimum, use chemical
weapons against an invasion force. 41 Interestingly, however, there were no specific plans
to eradicate those materials or the sites at which they were suspected of being developed,
as WMD elimination was not part of the deliberate planning process or joint military
planning doctrine in the 1990s and the early 2000s. Consequently, although U.S. contin-
gency plans for Iraq from the 1990s and the revisions in 2000 identified the elimination
of Saddam’s ability to make WMD as an end state, none of them assigned any units or
organizations the responsibility for exploiting and destroying suspected WMD sites.



not too interesting so far but i thought this was funny. couldn't even remember to put some WMD hunters in front of cameras. thanx for the linx

edit wait nvm that's exactly what they did, find some token WMD hunters the day before the final exam for the cameras, pg 60-

However, CENT-
COM and CFLCC did not assign an organization to secure Iraq’s presumed WMD until
3 months before the invasion, even though the Iraqis’ alleged nuclear, biological, and
chemical weapons stockpiles were the U.S. casus belli. The U.S. interagency’s list of 900
suspected WMD sites was too extensive for the CFLCC to secure with a small invasion
force that needed to focus its combat power on destroying the Iraqi military and defeat-
ing the regime security forces in Baghdad....
Once assigned to CFLCC, the 75th brigade divided the
200 personnel assigned to the mission into sensitive site exploitation teams and mobile
exploitation teams, then linking up with other U.S. Government agencies to gather the
information necessary to fulfill its new mission. The 75th Field Artillery Brigade also
participated in CFLCC’s Lucky Warrior exercise in February 2003, but the late notice the
brigade received, combined with its lack of WMD expertise and the sheer volume of the
suspected sites, would quickly overwhelm the 75th once Saddam’s regime fell.



CFLCC's been integrated into an AI now btw


~~~~~~~~

enjoying the lengths the settlers went to use lightning-war w/o calling it that-

"Major General Buford C. “Buff” Blount, the division commander, had a somewhat different view. Having encountered little coherent Iraqi defense on the approach to Baghdad, Blount preferred to keep his brigades moving and attack through Baghdad rather than merely probe it. Blount and Perkins thus set
out to conduct what amounted to a movement to contact into the city, an attack the unit dubbed a “Thunder Run.” For his part, Perkins defined his task as “to enter Baghdad for the purpose of displaying combat power, to destroy enemy forces . . . and to simply show them that we can.”

...It outlined the concept of “shock and awe” and how it could be applied in devising war plans. 32 Ullman and Wade advanced the idea of “rapid dominance” in which a comparatively small-sized military force could, through a display of military might, enforce its will on a powerful country and military to enact change. Some of the mechanisms to induce shock and awe included the use of “unstoppable, lethal” weapons like long-range air power to “impose a regime of unrelenting and ever-increasing stress.” Any of the relatively small number of ground forces used to enact the change must “arrive suddenly, strike without remorse, and terminate their presence quickly” before the adversary had the opportunity to recover.


Edited by toyotathon ()

#2708
rip to the 75th brigade, hopelessly overwhelemed by the sheer volume of saddam's suspected WMD sites. never forget