#161
To be fair this could yet be the end of the US occupation of Iraq...........
#162

Petrol posted:

To be fair this could yet be the end of the US occupation of Iraq...........

If the US retaliates I think this is it for the US in Southeast Asia.

#163
#164

RedMaistre posted:

must try to avoid provoking a devastating apocalyptic response from Washington's axis

#165
#166
#167
u$saying only iraqis died. obviously bullshit. are they trying to deescalate? #168 United States soldiers in Iraq are Iraqi in spirit after two months of residency. #169 sparklefeather posted: u$ saying only iraqis died. obviously bullshit. are they trying to deescalate?

They're waiting to decide whether or not to bomb Iran before we get flooded with the story about US troops dying

#170

lmao what kind of statement is this
#171
hey, that's my president buddy
#172
I can only assume - hope - this minimising spin signifies a lack of will to escalate further
#173

dimashq posted:

Petrol posted:

To be fair this could yet be the end of the US occupation of Iraq...........

If the US retaliates I think this is it for the US in Southeast Asia.

This is it for the US in the world

#174
[account deactivated]
#175
I think that's very unlikely
#176
A plane crashed. That's all we know.
#177
supposedly iraqi security has confirmed no KIA, though I can't find proof. al-asad airbase is very well defended and no missiles were intercepted, so the attack sends a very pointed message without the escalation that would follow american loss of life.
#178
#179
I wouldn't trust anything coming from al arabiya. FARS news has an article claiming two dead but even that I'm skeptical of
#180

kinch posted:

I think that's very unlikely

#181

According to the accurate reports of our sources in the field, at least 80 American troops were killed and some 200 others were wounded, who were immediately transferred out of the airbase by helicopters,” said an informed source at the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

“Ain al-Assad airbase was a strategic site for the U.S. which was used to support drones,” the source added.

As many as 20 critical points of the base were hit by 15 missiles and a significant number of UAVs and helicopters were destroyed, according to the source.

“Despite the fact that Americans had been on high alert, their air defense was unable to respond.”

“As many as 104 critical U.S.-held points in the region have been targeted, which would be attacked upon the U.S.’s first mistake,” the source added.

There are good reasons to be skeptical but this sure matches up with previous knowledge of similar strikes as reported by RWN

#182

this time from an 'informed source' at the IRGC. still find it hard to believe. maybe in the morning it will turn out that no troops died in the attacks but sadly 80 of them were passengers on the ill-fated boeing
#183
If that is what happened, small hands donnie tapping out his "All is well!" is even funnier
#184

Fayafi posted:

Iran shot down a Ukrainian flight by accident. Poor Ukrainians, goddamn, when they're at home or abroad their planes get hit in the crossfire.

I'm as paranoid about this as the next poster, but it was a 737 so there's a pretty good chance it did just crash by itself after all

#185
i have just been conducting extensive open source journalistic analysis on everything we know so far about the attack and i think iran may be behind it
#186
iraq seems to be reporting no iraqi casualties, contrary to early US reports. trump's "all is well" implies no US casualties. they were doubtless prepared for this eventuality and i think iran has been very canny in carrying out a strike that is at once meaningful and bloodless.

as for the plane...

if this was a deliberate attack, iran didn't do it. mostly iranians on board and no yanks. and i think it beggars belief that iranians did it by accident either - shoot down a passenger jet taking off from their own commercial airport? but the flight data indicates a catastrophic event and video shows it went down in flames. so it's suspicious.
#187
While Suleimani was definitely worth hundreds of Amerikkkan soldiers lives if not more, it was not worth cashing in because the US is a perfidious empire willing to use its nuclear arsenal. This was probably the best scenario (assuming Trump doesn’t go to war over what appears to be 0 dead), because: 1) it probably silenced a bunch of naysayers in the pentagon that Iran can’t hit targets with their ballistic missiles. Reports are saying they hit US bases in such a way as to not kill but to demonstrate extreme precision and the serious consequences of war. 2) established a willingness and precedent that American aggression can and will be answered by a non nuclear power 3) Amerikkka is a paper tiger that can be deterred effectively with a ballistics missile program, as Dolan and many anti-imperialists claimed. Long term prognosis for empire: fucked.

Also if Ukrainian flight was shot down its Trump’s fault based on simple causal reasoning (same with the tragic funeral stampede), whether an Iranian officer ordered it or not is absolutely irrelevant.

#188
Further on the plane crash: footage of the plane indicating it was on fire before it crashed may have just been when it was clipping power lines. Flight path indicates an attempt to turn back for an emergency landing. So some kind of technical failure is plausible after all.

In any case I want to be clear that my position is it could not possibly have been shot down by Iranians, accidentally or otherwise. A deliberate takedown makes no sense, and mistaking it for a legitimate target seems impossible under the circumstances. So possible sabotage/strike by some anti-Iran party but I'm actually leaning in the direction of an accident, an unfortunate coincidence.
#189
Also correct me if I’m wrong but I believe this is the first time since 1941 that a sovereign nation directly and officially attacked the United States and it happened in such a way that there’s a likely possibility that it deescalated the situation. Massive.
#190
An escalation like this was probably in the cards for a while. I would also have no problem believing they did it mainly to temporarily boost the oil industry esp fracking which - long story short - at current prices has to produce 80% of its 2010s production just to get out of debt. If that's the case, the worst is over unless Iran wants to retaliate some more.

Also Happy New Year I guess.
#191

dimashq posted:

Also correct me if I’m wrong but I believe this is the first time since 1941 that a sovereign nation directly and officially attacked the United States and it happened in such a way that there’s a likely possibility that it deescalated the situation. Massive.

Yep, this is the big takeaway here, assuming Trump's upbeat tweet is any indication (and who knows, he might just turn around and do something really stupid before he finally addresses the nation). I'm cautiously optimistic. This could really be a watershed moment

#192

dimashq posted:

Reports are saying they hit US bases in such a way as to not kill but to demonstrate extreme precision

pls link reports? im trying to formulate a reply that doesn't come across as iwc style here because i would really like to believe this too but im hearing hermann goering in my head going "the V2s deliberately targeted an empty field on the outskirts of london to demonstrate extreme precision"

ill also have no choice to be happy if the us doesn't really respond because a lot less people will be dead. politically speaking though it's by far the smartest thing trump can do. neither party is going to criticize him for this and he gets to look both tough and magnanimous

Edited by littlegreenpills ()

#193

littlegreenpills posted:

dimashq posted:

Reports are saying they hit US bases in such a way as to not kill but to demonstrate extreme precision

pls link reports? im trying to formulate a reply that doesn't come across as iwc style here because i would really like to believe this too but im hearing hermann goering in my head going "the V2s deliberately targeted an empty field on the outskirts of london to demonstrate extreme precision"

ill also have no choice to be happy if the us doesn't really respond because a lot less people will be dead. politically speaking though it's by far the smartest thing trump can do. neither party is going to criticize him for this and he gets to look both tough and magnanimous

#194
it all depends if those missiles landed like, smack dab in an alleyway between two hangars or in a field ten miles away
#195
The resistance axis demonstrated their technical capabilities months ago in the aramco strike. I don't think the IRGC would lob off a couple missiles not knowing what the result was going to be.

edit: here u go

Edited by dimashq ()

#196
e: beaten again
#197
ty holy shid. there's also claims floating around that the us deliberately made no attempt to intercept but even if it's true im not if it would have made a difference, the patriot system didn't exactly acquit itself well in 1990 against far dumber missiles
#198
Link to a larger version of the satellite image above. Can definitely see some misses, like in the bottom right it looks like they were trying to hit what appears to be reinforced hangars but just hit pavement. But as the above shows they clearly got enough direct hits to demonstrate they can do so. Top right corner also appears to show one out of 4 buildings near some aircraft totally demolished.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENxVAScXsAA36RH?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Reports are that they used Fateh 313 missiles with multiple warheads, this explains some of the random conflicting numbers, like 10, 12, 15, 36 missiles shot hitting up to 20 targets. Also explains some of the photos of missile wreckage in the surrounding area - those are probably the propulsion system before the warheads detach.
#199
Trump folded!
#200
he's so fucked up lol