sosie posted:
but what i want is just for all this to be purged of all the effort one would need to understand it all and just for a layman's explanation of what the fuck y'all are talking about over here.

like, you people are experts in this really narrow department, and it would be probably nice to know what in the goddamn fuck you are fucking saying.

if you want to be part of the laity, go listen to the clergy explaining why all of this is necessary. the range of possible discussion and thinking outside of that context is actually quite broad right now

dm posted:
http://www.laits.utexas.edu/eur/session_1.html

there's actually one other thing in this video that will send a chill straight up your spine. same guy at 57:40-61:55 the chill should kick in at 61:20

it's funny because this conference was organized as a sort of nostalgic Keynesian/social democratic thing but you see a lot of Marx popping up. that guy in particular keeps busting it out over and over again

e: is he not also implicitly raising the Idea of communism? talking about a unified diversity through cooperation rather than competition as the potential for a "great social experiment" and everything? we are entering some interesting times.

another part i'd like to point out is the French guy with the neurological thing that starts just before 22 minutes. his whole presentation is interesting, especially going into the stuff about the composition of assets in favor of public debt. i don't know all of the history there too well, but there is some heritage there in terms of the ideas of the saint-simonians that marx apparently picked up on and i think might have a relation to what little we know about how he envisioned the concrete transformation to socialism. the idea was that they were supposed to serve as little planning centers.

if this is correct, it is also reflected in Lenin (via Zizek):

“Capitalism has created an accounting apparatus in the shape of the banks, syndicates, postal service, consumers’ societies, and office employees unions. Without big banks socialism would be impossible. /.../ our task is here merely to lop off what capitalistically mutilates this excellent apparatus, to make it even bigger, even more democratic, even more comprehensive. /.../ This will be country-wide book-keeping, country-wide accounting of the production and distribution of goods, this will be, so to speak, something in the nature of the skeleton of socialist society."

i suppose i rest my case about being ahead of the curve with seizing the means of production above :smug:

anyways, back to the mm. Parguez: he discusses a certain memo at 32:35.

khamsek: you might be interested in watching his whole lecture to get some ideas because he talks about the political economy of the state and the central bank. the stuff he's talking about with the shift towards private debt is crucial to understanding the process of financialization, though i don't know a whole lot of detail there yet.

Edited by dm (Dec. 17, 2011 18:42:20)

sosie posted:
but what i want is just for all this to be purged of all the effort one would need to understand it all and just for a layman's explanation of what the fuck y'all are talking about over here.

like, you people are experts in this really narrow department, and it would be probably nice to know what in the goddamn fuck you are fucking saying.

i'd be happy to try and simplify some stuff, is there anything in particular

crustpunk_trotsky posted:
as far as I know an artificial exchange rate doesn't mean anything if you still need to import goods & no one is willing to trade in your currency at that rate, unless greece can either become self-sufficient or has a currency board and a load of spare euros on hand-- is that the case?

if the invoices on imports and exports get denominated in the new currency, the traders will follow. still not sure if they're going to do that or the transfer union or what though

Even now, the behaviour of bond markets appears to be inexplicable in relation to the so-called “fundamentals” of public debts and deficits. For example, as a percentage of GDP Spain's government debt is smaller than that of Germany. Yet Germany is seen as a safe bet, with German bonds trading at very low yields, while Spain has a very high risk premium on its public debt. In general, the eurozone countries that are being punished by the bond markets – and whose sovereign debts currently have very high interest rate spreads over Germany's – are not really characterised by high fiscal deficit to GDP ratios or high public debt. Rather, they are countries with significant current account deficits.

This provides a clue as to the basic source of the crisis: the current account imbalances between eurozone countries, which have now become unsustainable, as private finance reacts by withholding capital flows. This happens to be expressed in the form of low prices and high yields on sovereign bonds, but the truth is that these “peripheral” countries are not in trouble because of fiscal imbalances but because capital inflows in the previous decade were associated with a rapid build-up of current account imbalances generated by the private sector. So, this is essentially a banking crisis brought about by private capital inflows that then led to divergences in real exchange rates and trade balances.

Developing countries (or emerging markets as they are now called) are familiar with this kind of crisis – we have been there, done that and lost our T shirts many times over. The question is what allowed such imbalances in real exchange rates (which is the same as saying, different price levels in different eurozone countries) to persist despite the claims of the European Single Market, which was supposed to equalise goods and factor prices across the region. This failure of the Single Market to deliver is at least one of the deeper roots of the current crisis.

the policy that has been pursued is the same: you cut public spending to deliberately create high unemployment and force down wages. this never actually "works" because it simply can't be done. here is a random person who happens to be doing the very difficult task of sorting out the balance of payments with only a partial understanding of this process (for which the economists use the euphemism "internal devaluation"):

Today we got more evidence that infernal devaluation is progressing. EA unit labor costs (ULC) – average cost of labour per hour workers – increased 0.2% in the third quarter, slowing the annual pace from 3.1% to 2.7%. While the slowdown was to be expected, given the deterioration of domestic demand, the elevated level of growth in ULC suggests that wages in Europe are stickier than what is needed to effectively drive the terms of trade via internal devaluation. Better put: downward pressure in European wages moves more like molasses than water; it will take severe recessions in some of the debtor countries to drive relative prices down sufficient enough to feasibly shift the terms of trade.

...Greece and Ireland (Greek data is truncated at Q2 2011) successfully devalued. But at what cost? Their unemployment rates that are now multiples of what they were before the crisis.

so that's actually the game plan. see the logic of turning to government deficits here? it draws attention away from how the adjustments are actually being made and explains it in terms of what is being used to make them

“Mitt never struck me as an ideologue outside matters involving church and family,” said Howard Brownstein, a classmate.

it's like a fucking strawman

disestablishmentarian posted:
Do you guys ever wonder what if the technofetishists are right and we all merge with machines in the end, reaching the transhuman nirvana? What if capitalism, neoliberalism, all of this has an end and all of theses debates in academic, this cult of intellectual onanism, is irrelevant because the systems of the world will all fade away into a post material, post human society?

no i don't ever wonder that

aerdil posted:
non-ideological NON-IDEOLOGICAL NO IDEOLOGY NONE HERE TO SEE FOLKS NEOLIBERALISM IS THE LACK OF IDEOLOGY, IDEOLOGY BAD.

sorry, but i'm going to have to make your head explode really quick:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-19/monti-wins-approval-for-italian-austerity-plan-in-lower-house.html

Non-Political Government

Monti, who took office a month ago as head of an unelected government of non-politicians, is seeking to show investors he can tame a 1.9 trillion-euro debt, bigger than that of Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland combined. With no political base in parliament, Monti relies on support from both Berlusconi’s PDL and the Democratic Party, its chief rival, to remain in power.

“The concern that there is always going to be with having a technocrat in charge is that the other parties might try and gain political capital,” said Peter Chatwell, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Agricole SA in London. “So, as long as the technocrat remains well backed, that’s good for Italy and good for stability.”

dm posted:
head of an unelected government of non-politicians

ahahaheahaehaeheah

All this brought us the financial crisis, when the overinflated bubble inevitably popped, and all those weak affordable housing mortgages left financial institutions particularly vulnerable. This was really a classic boom and bust cycle with primary roots in discretionary monetary policies untethered by stable money linked to something real like gold.

Since then, the true Keynesian believer Bernanke, with the full support of President Obama, has continued his seat of the pants discretionary monetary policies guided by the Bernanke standard, which has prevented real recovery through lack of a stable monetary environment to promote investment. President Obama’s crusades for higher marginal tax rates, already enacted into law for 2013, and a building tsunami of regulatory costs, accompanied by Roosevelt style denunciation of job creators and investors, has only further contributed to what is undeniably the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression.

Overall, since America abandoned the firm link to gold of Bretton Woods, real economic growth (1972-2010) has been a full percentage point lower than during the Bretton Woods era (1948-1971). If economic growth had continued at the Bretton Woods era rates, by 2010 GDP would have been $21 trillion instead of $15 trillion, and the federal budget would have been in surplus.

Since the abandonment of Bretton Woods, the dollar has lost 77% of its value against the GDP deflator and 97% of its value relative to gold. In October 2011, real wages for ordinary workers were 6.7% lower than they had been 39 years before. This is all the cumulative effect of 1% lower growth rates for decades.

How can we reverse course? A modern version of a link to gold for the dollar is known as the “price rule.” That means the Fed is to be guided in its monetary policies by the market prices of a basket of price sensitive commodities, such as gold, oil, silver, copper, and other precious metals and minerals. When those prices start to rise, that signals inflation, and time for the Fed to slow down the money expansion. When those prices start to fall, that signals deflation and recession, and time for the Fed to step up money expansion.

The Fed would then be guided by markets, rather than by progressive bureaucrats who think they know it all and should rule over the rest of us in their wisdom (see, e.g., disastrous inflation/recession cycles of the 1970s). That would have the added advantage of enabling the Fed to dismiss most of its troublemaking staff, which could mostly be replaced by a few interns monitoring market prices.

The result would be a stable dollar without inflation, once again beloved as the international reserve currency, the end of badly destabilizing boom and bust business cycles, booming long term economic growth, millions of new jobs, and soaring real wages and incomes for working people.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2011/12/29/the-monetary-foundations-of-economic-prosperity/2/

lmao

discipline posted:
they're tanking iran's currency now. this has been the first thing that has made me seriously concerned about war happening.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2012/0104/Iran-s-currency-crash-a-blow-to-Ahmadinejad

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0103/Why-Iran-s-currency-dropped-to-worst-low-in-two-decades

there was a dispute with the Saudis on raising OPEC output targets or something prior to the threat about the Straight of Hormuz. whether or not it's actually damaging depends on their foreign exchange reserves and whether or not they hit balance of payments constraints. China might step in to support them and the drain on China's reserves might even be what the US after.

notice how they focus on the symbolic aspects as well. this is where the substance is:

But in the past week Iran's currency – the rial – dropped almost 30 percent after President Obama approved new sanctions targeting Iran's Central Bank. The rial has since rebounded significantly from a low of 17,800 rials to the dollar on Monday. However the Central Bank has tried to introduce a cap on the market rate of 14,000 rials to the dollar, and the government announced that anyone caught selling rials at a higher rate would be arrested.

Washington's new financial legislation against Tehran will sanction foreign firms that purchase Iranian oil – by far the chief source of Iranian government revenue – and penalize banks engaging in financial transactions with Iran. The legislation won't be enacted for another six months, in order for the White House to prepare for any potential fallout on global oil prices, and the rial strengthened today somewhat to 16,200 rials to the dollar.

it does seem pretty desperate on the part of the US though

More shadow play in Persian Gulf
M K Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, Jan 8 2012


Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu’s visit to Iran doesn’t appear to have gone well. The rhetoric is all Turkey’s, and in a subtle way, Iranian official media have been gently mocking at it. The fact is, Turkey cannot afford such poor relations with almost all its neighbours Iran, Syria, Iraq, Armenia, Cyprus, Israel. With France and EU, too, things are rocky. But Tehran takes a dim view of Turkey’s covert subversion of Syria and its interference in Iraq, as well as its axis with Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Most important, Turkey is allowing the US’s ABM system to be deployed on its soil, whose main purpose is to monitor Iran’s missile capability against Israel. Thus, Davutoglu’s revelation of a Turkish mediatory role in the Iran nuclear issue is, let us say, a lot of hot air. Iranian FM Salehi used his Persian tact to respond with his ‘personal opinion’ that Iran has no problem with Istanbul as a venue of talks.

The negotiations over the nuclear issue are going to be tough, especially under the shadow of the EU’s impending ban on purchase of Iran’s oil. Iran will be wary of the west using the talks for propaganda purposes. Trita Parsi, who knows the subject exceedingly well from the inside track, and advises the US government, has an insightful article in the Independent on the US and western countries’ doublespeak. Similarly, Iran will be hugely wary of the western propaganda about the US Navy rescuing the Iranian sailors from Somali pirates. The Iranian media downplayed the event, while the western media played it up. Iran is far too experienced with the booby traps on the propaganda front. The US-Israeli propaganda will strive to cast Iran as unreasonable in the face of west’s ‘friendly’ acts.

Attention now turns to Pres Ahmedinejad’s 5-nation tour of Latin America in a blaze of publicity. It is a diplomatic scoop for Iran insofar as it displays Iran is far from isolated even in the US’s own backyard. The statements by Ahmedinejad will be closely followed as he wings his way through Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Cuba and appears as the guest of honour at the swearing in ceremony of Guatemala’s newly-elected leftist president. It is a loss of face for Obama, who began his presidency with a bang in Latin America. Meanwhile, Tehran is taking precautions over the US-Israeli war plans. What matters most for Tehran will be the actual actions on the ground. The British deployment, for instance, will be taken with utmost seriousness, given London’s track record of identifying with the hawkish Israeli lobby’s opinion in Washington and Britain’s itch to settle scores with Iran at some point following the recent rupture in diplomatic ties.

Iran isn’t lowering its guard. An IRGC exercise began in the eastern region bordering Afghanistan. The message is rather straightforward: ‘over 100000 US troops are deployed like sitting ducks in their Afghan bases who may become victims of any US-Israeli attack on Iran.’ Again, on Saturday, Iran announced its intention to have another big naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. Clearly, if the US-Israeli strategy has been to browbeat Iran, it isn’t working. On Saturday, Iran announced that it is dumping US dollars and will have trade in future with Russia in their national currencies. Iran also is warming up to the Russian proposal on the nuclear issue. Clearly, when the unity of the 5+1 gets eroded, advantage goes to Iran.

Russia has created diplomatic space for Iran to negotiate via its flexible proposal, which virtually undercuts the ’sanctions route’ that has been pursued in the UNSC so far. Russia has begun demanding a rollback of the UN sanctions on Iran. This is already reflected in the confident fashion in which Tehran is dealing with the team of IAEA inspectors who are visiting Iran at the moment. Iran suo moto displayed its indigenous capabilities on a front where according to Parsi’s account, it was prepared to compromise with the US within the framework of the Brazil-Turkey-Iran swap formula. Tehran has promised to announce some more “good news” of nuclear capability in the “coming weeks.” Again, the Kremlin’s account of the telephone conversation between Pres Medvedev and Ahmedinejad underscores an appreciable level of understanding on a range of regional issues. The Russian media reports estimate the western pressure on Syria and Iran as inter-related, forming part of a strategy to dominate the Middle East, which would impact on Russian interests. Interestingly, Russia is making further naval deployments in Syria signalling support to Pres Assad.

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2012/01/08/more-shadow-playiin-persian-gulf/