Can the West reshape Libya as it did post-WWII Europe to meet its goals of neocolonial hegemony? Not likely, as Turkey was pragmatic enough to get in on the ground and will be able to ensure that Libyans are not duped by their clever Western advisers. Ditto Tunisia and Egypt. The forceful and principled foreign policy moves of Davitoglu are leaving the West and Israel breathless in the new Bermuda Triangle.
Israeli whining about their trashed embassy in Cairo or their unceremonious expulsion from Ankara can impress no one. Just imagine the scenario if Cyprus is replaced by Egypt in the Bermuda Triangle, and a Turkish-Egyptian alliance decides to take on Israel. The current blockade of Gaza will look like child's play. Egypt controls the Suez Canal, and Turkey -- the eastern Mediterranean. One can only marvel that it has taken over 60 years for Israel's powerful neighbours -- with 20 times the population of Israel -- to realise their collective power and ability to impose a just regional order without any kowtowing to Washington.
What is surprising is that the AKP faces no domestic opposition to its policy with either Israel, Cyprus or the EU. The Republican People's Party is even competing with the AKP on who is more anti-Israel., protesting against plans to install a NATO early warning radar. The once-feared Islamists clearly represent the overwhelming Turkish sentiment, and geopolitical dictates are creating a fait accompli.
Willingness to stand up for the nation's rights, and to stare down the Israeli enemy and the Islamophobic Euros is where it's at, and there is little the increasingly powerless US can do about it. The US better wake up soon or, like the EU, it will lose its true ally in the Middle East, and will merely speed up the consolidation of a pax turkana, latter-day caliphate once again led by Turkey.
discipline posted:
time to nuke mecca? - usa strategists
Operation Twilight Of The Idols
noavbazzer posted:discipline posted:
time to nuke mecca? - usa strategistsOperation Twilight Of The Idols
lol
turkoglu
i'm culturually insensitive
vampirarchist posted:
They forgot Syria and the PKK
Syria is going to be mired in internal problems like Iraq and Libya for a long time from here on out and won't be able to contribute to any greater geopolitical project until it gets its house in order.
The PKK...
lol
deadken posted:
lol theres not a fucking chance egypt will withdraw from its alliance with israel whatever government it ends up getting, the cards are stacked and democracy doesnt work. the only hope is for a weak government followed by a vanguardist revolution like in russia
thats dumb but you have proven yourself to be friedman-level incompetent in analyzing middle eastern politics so whatever
babyfinland posted:
thats dumb but you have proven yourself to be friedman-level incompetent in analyzing middle eastern politics so whatever
lol elaborate
deadken posted:babyfinland posted:
thats dumb but you have proven yourself to be friedman-level incompetent in analyzing middle eastern politics so whateverlol elaborate
i heard u thoguht that the syrian army was half islamist and the secret shadow govt or something which is the most ass backwards thing ive ever heard
deadken posted:
i didnt say anything about islamism, i think its possible that assad is now being used as a fleshpuppet by elements within the syrian army yes
ok well thats different. because the remarkable thing about the syrian situation is precisely the perfect solidarity of the army with the regime which completely rules out any significant islamist (i.e. sunni i.e. saudi/israeli/US backed) elements
discipline posted:
as in most arab countries the leader and military are almost literally the same thing
yes/ its still a strange and insignificant thing to say (assad is hostage of the army (ok so whats the armys deal then)) but its not hilariously and obviously wrong as Syrian Army has Gone Jihadist Mates
discipline posted:
there is a "the people + the army are one hand" vs. a "the army + the leadership are one hand" ideology going on right now in egypt and it's interesting. money talks loud in egypt though.
i think the brute force of money is far less influential in egypt right now than in most places in the world actually. the saudis have made no serious inroads and the military regime is faltering.
discipline posted:
that's why the army felt so comfortable throwing mubarak to the curb. he was just a hangnail, an outgrowth, someone that could be easily replaced so the $ keeps flowing
yeah but its precisely because of the closeness between the army and the regime in syria along with its domination by alawites that prevents this from happening there
babyfinland posted:
arab officer corps and american diplomacy are like peanute butter and jelly
ones brown & sticks around for ages after its supposed to be gone and ones dripping with a suspicious red fluid?
discipline posted:
they could cash out assad, they just want to appear strong because the relationship between the military and the people is totally different in egypt, turkey, israel, and syria for example. it would be a really interesting thing to study now that I think about it in a nerdy way.
maybe after i get my degree ill join the army and do a study like this as an officer w00t that would own
babyfinland posted:
The PKK...
lol
what's so lol about it babyfinland?
redfiesta posted:babyfinland posted:
The PKK...
lolwhat's so lol about it babyfinland?
The PKK have no political sway, they're just a thorn in Turkey / Iraq's side that other people use as leverage. "here have some guns you morons go blow something up" They want to think they're Irgun 2.0 but they're a joke
babyfinland posted:
redfiesta posted:
babyfinland posted:
The PKK...
lol
what's so lol about it babyfinland?
The PKK have no political sway, they're just a thorn in Turkey / Iraq's side that other people use as leverage. "here have some guns you morons go blow something up" They want to think they're Irgun 2.0 but they're a joke
They are in control on some areas such as yüksekova and turkish government is basically out of options on how to deal with them. they also have a larger presence in parliament than before and just recently we got some evidence about MIT negotiating with them back in 2009. they are stronger than ever.
babyfinland posted:
redfiesta posted:
babyfinland posted:
The PKK...
lol
what's so lol about it babyfinland?
The PKK have no political sway, they're just a thorn in Turkey / Iraq's side that other people use as leverage. "here have some guns you morons go blow something up" They want to think they're Irgun 2.0 but they're a joke
come on now, if you dont buy the theory, at least you'll know from practice: you have to treat the joke the most seriously
redfiesta posted:babyfinland posted:
redfiesta posted:
babyfinland posted:
The PKK...
lol
what's so lol about it babyfinland?
The PKK have no political sway, they're just a thorn in Turkey / Iraq's side that other people use as leverage. "here have some guns you morons go blow something up" They want to think they're Irgun 2.0 but they're a jokeThey are in control on some areas such as yüksekova and turkish government is basically out of options on how to deal with them. they also have a larger presence in parliament than before and just recently we got some evidence about MIT negotiating with them back in 2009. they are stronger than ever.
Crow posted:babyfinland posted:
redfiesta posted:
babyfinland posted:
The PKK...
lol
what's so lol about it babyfinland?
The PKK have no political sway, they're just a thorn in Turkey / Iraq's side that other people use as leverage. "here have some guns you morons go blow something up" They want to think they're Irgun 2.0 but they're a jokecome on now, if you dont buy the theory, at least you'll know from practice: you have to treat the joke the most seriously
the pkk have no diaspora or real international support outside of european opportunists so they have no chance of establishing a nation state. the most they can do is ethnically cleanse kurdistan (great, who cares) and control Mosul (some oil, great whatever. a new kosovo) but theyre about as significant geopolitically as the oathkeepers in the USA.
Yet Another Syrian Exile Opposition Council
by As'ad AbuKhalil
So, yesterday, it was announced in Istanbul that yet another exile opposition group was formed. It has no head. There were conflicts among the various constituent groups.
But I will tell you this lesson from Arab contemporary history: there has never been a case in which leftists or secularists were aligned with fundamentalists (Sunni or Shi'ite, lest you make a distinction) and in which the fundamentalists were not the dominant party. Not one case. Usually, when leftist or secularists were strong (like the Lebanese National Movement in the early phase of the Lebanese civil war), they don't align themselves with fundamentalists.
The lousy Muslim Brotherhood is the dominant party in this new front. The lousy Riyad Ash-Shaqfah, the "general inspector" of the Syrian Ikhwan, was in charge of questions and answers and he was the one who was invited to Al Jazeera for an interview.
The suspicions I had about those Ikhwan and their front liberals were only confirmed. This bunch is playing a cute game: they state that they are opposed to foreign intervention, and yet in the same breath they say that they call for international protection of civilians. Do those folks think that we are stupid? Did NATO not bomb the hell out of Libya under the pretext of "protecting civilians"? Even civilians supporting the NATO rebels were not immune from NATO bombs.
I don't know which way it will play out in Syria, but the lousy regime has been blessed with such lousy opposition. No wonder the Syrian opposition in the inside has been quite critical of the exile opposition. The meeting in Istanbul yesterday only needed Ahmad Chalabi.
