The visit by United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Islamabad last week turned out to be yet another defining moment in the endgame in Afghanistan. It took place under the heavy cloud cover of propaganda. Foggy Bottom habitually resorts to strident public diplomacy when Uncle Sam's tailcoat is on fire so that the awkwardness of dousing the flames remains a private affair.
In the event, five things emerged. One, the US has publicly acknowledged the centrality of Pakistan's role in the Afghan endgame. Two, the US publicly accepted the consistent Pakistani demand that the Haqqanis should be engaged in talks and that excluding them would make the entire process fragile. The Haqqani network is one of the most important components of the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan.
Three, therefore, the new approach will be to "squeeze" the Haqqanis so that they come to the negotiating table - rather than try to vanquish them as an irreconcilable insurgent group. Four, the US understood the range of factors behind Pakistan's hesitation in launching military operations in North Waziristan and would therefore switch tack and opt for "other forms of acting", such as sharing real-time intelligence and debilitating the network's lethal capabilities.
Five, Clinton conceded repeatedly Islamabad's "legitimate" concerns regarding the Taliban operating out of safe havens on Afghan soil to carry out cross-border terrorist attacks on its soil, and henceforth US troops would "up the military tempo" against those sanctuaries and prevent them from attacking Pakistan.
Clinton also made several demonstrative gestures to the effect that the US was prepared to go the extra league - even suspend its disbelief on occasions - in a determined effort to repair the rift in US-Pakistan ties. She admitted that the US had had "one preliminary meeting" with the Haqqanis "to essentially just see if they would show up for even a preliminary meeting", and, indeed, Pakistani officials "helped to facilitate" it.
What explains the dramatic u-turn in the US's strategy? In a nutshell, the Obama administration sized up that Pakistan was hunkering down and an impasse was developing, which was unacceptable, given the timeline ahead for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan by 2014. The heavy pressure tactic to the point of brandishing the sword failed to produce the desired result and is unlikely to work.
In sum, Washington sees the futility of visualizing Pakistan as a hostile power and of trying to impose an Afghan settlement that is unacceptable to the Pakistani military. The US has, therefore, switched to a startlingly innovative strategy. The mantra is to "incentivize" Pakistan by inviting it to play a major role in Afghanistan, but on conditions, which also ensures that the US's strategic interests remain protected.
It essentially devolves on conceding Pakistani primacy in Afghanistan and putting the Pakistani leadership in charge of negotiating with their counterparts in Kabul a settlement accommodating the Taliban that would stop the bloodshed and stabilize the country.
The US has, therefore, switched to a startlingly innovative strategy. The mantra is to "incentivize" Pakistan by inviting it to play a major role in Afghanistan, but on conditions, which also ensures that the US's strategic interests remain protected.
By "incentivize" did they mean "slaughter 20 Pakistani soldiers"?
http://www.thenews.com.pk/NewsDetail.aspx?ID=27322&title=Nato-attack-kills-20-Pakistani-troops
PESHAWAR: NATO helicopters from Afghanistan carried out an "unprovoked" attack on a Pakistani border post, killing at least 20 troops and injuring four others Saturday, the military said.
According to a military spokesman, NATO helicopters carried out unprovoked and indiscriminate firing on a Pakistani checkpost in Mohmand agency last night.
Security officials in the Mohmand tribal region near the Afghan border and a military official in Peshawar said 20 troops including two officers were killed in the pre-dawn incident.
They said the attack took place on the Salala checkpost in the Baizai district of the rugged tribal terrain.
Nato confirmed it was aware of "an incident" near the border and said it was investigating.
All the entry and exit points of Mohmand Agency were sealed by the security forces after the incident.
gruntstein posted:
how much more incentivizing can you do really, we already give them guns, money, legal protection, diplomatic consideration, and the ability to be the only Muslims on the planet with nukes
That's the old residual incentives scheme left over from the Cold War.
The new one has risen to 25.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gbbkDcc1WgqXp3aC79yvYTbZaCIA?docId=531f6d7566d045379df1037f079964d1
KHAR, Pakistan (AP) — Pakistan state TV says the death toll from an alleged NATO helicopter attack on a Pakistani army checkpoint near the Afghan border has risen to 25 soldiers.
State TV reported the death toll Saturday.
The Pakistan military has blamed NATO helicopters for the attack on the checkpoint in the Mohmand tribal area late Friday night.
NATO officials in Kabul said Saturday they were aware of the incident, and would release more information after they were able to gather more facts about what happened.
babyfinland posted:
The mantra is to "incentivize" Pakistan by inviting it to play a major role in Afghanistan, but on conditions, which also ensures that the US's strategic interests remain protected.
deadken posted:
lol nato are shitting their breeches now b/c the isi will retaliate and theres not a fucking thing they can do
the CIA could kick off some shit against the saudis since pakistan is about this close to becoming a saudi colony
saudi interests aren't monolithic: there's the complacent pro-US faction and the al qaeda-islamist faction that's taken over in libya and fighting in syria, afghanistan, pakistan and carried out 9/11
deadken posted:
lol yes the cia will actively work to destabilise the saudi regime. on opposite day, in parallel earth
wouldnt opposite day in parallel earth be a placetime where things happen exactly as they do here
mistersix posted:
deadken posted:
lol yes the cia will actively work to destabilise the saudi regime. on opposite day, in parallel earth
wouldnt opposite day in parallel earth be a placetime where things happen exactly as they do here
it's parallel earth not mirror/perpendicular earth. mere surplusage
Edited by christmas_cheer ()