xipe posted:

i dunno why every terrorist group doent have a hedge fund divisions + vice versa, die hard style

probably the only surefire way to make money on trading without being goldman sachs

because their assets will be frozen in literally half a second on the barest suspicion that they're funding an anti-state cell

Ironicwarcriminal posted:

Posting this because it's 10:42 monday morning and this shit is probably heading your way when the markets open

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-19b-lost-in-early-trade-20120507-1y7q6.html

$19B wiped off the Australian stock exchange in the first 90 minutes of trade :/

yeah but that's aus $19b which is like five freedom bucks

Groulxsmith posted:

the stock market itself is actually a lot smaller in market capitalization than a lot of other, more esoteric markets. it gets attention mostly because it is conceptually very simple, something that directly or indirectly affects a decent number of people, and lends itself to ESPNish media like CNBC that perpetuate its peripheral businesses.

so if we go by stock charts to get an idea of whats going on in the nasdaq or w/e, what do we go by for these esoteric markets?

Groulxsmith posted:

xipe posted:

Groulxsmith posted:

the stock market itself is actually a lot smaller in market capitalization than a lot of other, more esoteric markets. it gets attention mostly because it is conceptually very simple, something that directly or indirectly affects a decent number of people, and lends itself to ESPNish media like CNBC that perpetuate its peripheral businesses.

so if we go by stock charts to get an idea of whats going on in the nasdaq or w/e, what do we go by for these esoteric markets?

the bond market is pretty transparent as far as tracking its performance, and it's bigger and more important than the stock market. people make money off commodity trading through derivatives and not really the underlying instruments, but that is out there for consumption too. the really big credit markets are dominated by a few big banks; what i did, probably 90% of dollar volume was done by the 10-15 biggest institutions. what happens in that doesn't really tell you much that would be interesting though. it's a bit hard to describe, but for example, if citibank had a specific event one day, it would distort the rest of the market accordingly, but on the outside you'd never really know.

serious Q: how do non wealthy people actually make a living or make any money off the stock market considering how incestuous and corrupt finance is?

i figure day traders have to be making large consistent returns on their money just to break even and pay off living expenses + taxes. the occasional millionaire stories are easier to guess as that's just luck akin to winning a jackpot at a vegas slotmachine

AmericanNazbro posted:

serious Q: how do non wealthy people actually make a living or make any money off the stock market considering how incestuous and corrupt finance is?

i figure day traders have to be making large consistent returns on their money just to break even and pay off living expenses + taxes. the occasional millionaire stories are easier to guess as that's just luck akin to winning a jackpot at a vegas slotmachine

with the advent of computerized trading, the idea that there are repeatable patterns that create moments of opportunity to profit isn't as off-base as it probably once was, but the same computers that make it possible rather quickly correct it, so it's a fool's errand to try to beat this.

so really, in the sense of purely trading stocks, just about nobody can make a living off it, since even whatever outliers that might exist at one point in time can't sustain returns over the long run. even if a guy sitting in an exurban office park somehow had access to the same models created by physicists at investment banks, servers located next door to the exchange's servers, and information on market dynamics from dealers and market makers, he wouldn't have anything even close to the capital he would need to be able to risk over, and over, and over again to make money (like probably tens of millions of dollars.)

in other words, to the extent that inefficiencies do exist, they are so small and last such a brief time that it doesn't mean anything for day traders; day trading preys on people who really don't have any business doing what they do, and as far as i can tell, makes money by charging them for seats or accounts or whatever. there'a a reason the same kind of places that convince people they can make money by day trading also often push "strategies" based off numerology and even astrology.

getfiscal posted:

in my experience, people who don't believe in efficient market hypothesis get REALLY angry if you get on their case about it. like they think you are basically pushing crazy economic snake oil. and i always go well then go make a lot of money you clown and they unsurprisingly have excuses for that.

isn't that what george soros did

Groulxsmith posted:

http://www.eso-garden.com/index.php?/weblog/more/financial_astrology/

My old roommate worked for a guy who essentially did this and made some money off of it, but the guy also did more traditional investment as well, so its hard to tell if the guy made any real money from this financial astrology. I remember the first time I heard about it I couldn't believe that someone actually used the stars some kind of financial tool

gyrofry posted:

getfiscal posted:

in my experience, people who don't believe in efficient market hypothesis get REALLY angry if you get on their case about it. like they think you are basically pushing crazy economic snake oil. and i always go well then go make a lot of money you clown and they unsurprisingly have excuses for that.

isn't that what george soros did

george soros targeted policy failures by the government based on forcing them into a position where they had to buckle in ways that they claimed they wouldn't do. part of the issue was that his actions were so massive that they sort of changed the rules of the game. like say a small central bank said they were going to maintain a certain exchange rate with the US dollar and did so by holding certain reserves or something, soros would fly in with billions of dollars and force them to deplete their reserves until they couldn't credibly maintain the exchange rate, and all of soros' money would be based on bets that they wouldn't maintain the exchange rate, and then that would break things and he'd win. but that doesn't really have anything to do with efficient markets, really, it's a specific policy problem associated with foreign exchange and central banks and such, because no one thought it was possible to manipulate currencies at that scale.