It took a group largely composed of bankers (the Delors Committee) to reach the conclusion that an independent central bank was the only supra-national institution necessary to run an integrated, supra-national Europe.
e: and here is a bunch of more technical stuff that is part of what my post would be based on in case anyone is interested
http://www.researchonmoneyandfinance.org/index.php/publication/eurozone-reports
http://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/can-euroland-survive
Edited by laika ()
This is a bit off topic maybe but it's all part of the same dialectical system imo
babyhueypnewton posted:I would be interested how important Russia is for the EU economy and if the United States is losing control because of it's imperial misadventures in Ukraine and Syria. On the one hand it's clear that Russia is moving towards China and Latin America and away from the USA/EU as a counterbalance to petro-dollar hegemony, but on the other hand I can't seriously imagine the USA being able to replace Russia as an export market for EU machinery and FDI even if they replace oil and gas imports.
This is a bit off topic maybe but it's all part of the same dialectical system imo
I mainly just had the euro in mind, but I definitely don't want to discourage discussion about NATO/Russia. A lot of the oil and natural gas could come from the US unless environmental regulation is strong enough. Only about 8% of EU exports go to Russia which is significant but not as much when the changes that you're talking about are more long-term.
Barbarossa posted:Hahaha so a bunch of ultra powerful and rich people decided that only the Holy Bank needs to reign supreme over all of Europe, how very consistent of them. It seems that every problem that arises can be solved with either slashing public services or taking out huge loans from rich people, I don't know why we didn't find these powerful tools earlier in human history really
We kind of went through the same thing in the run up to and during the Great Depression, but austerity is totally going to work this time you guys.
laika posted:We kind of went through the same thing in the run up to and during the Great Depression, but austerity is totally going to work this time you guys.
the great depression was a bolt from the clear... read your history
babyhueypnewton posted:I would be interested how important Russia is for the EU economy and if the United States is losing control because of it's imperial misadventures in Ukraine and Syria. On the one hand it's clear that Russia is moving towards China and Latin America and away from the USA/EU as a counterbalance to petro-dollar hegemony, but on the other hand I can't seriously imagine the USA being able to replace Russia as an export market for EU machinery and FDI even if they replace oil and gas imports.
This is a bit off topic maybe but it's all part of the same dialectical system imo
i think in the long run most countries understand that the US is fucked and they must find new customers for their products asap. even Canada, which is the US proxiest state of all US proxy states, has quietly gone about concluding comprehensive trade agreements with every other national and international body it possibly can over the past 5-10 years. there's so little coverage of this in mainstream media, though, you just see a little tidbit floating by ever so often and it disappears in a day. the Canada-EU comprehensive free trade agreement is going to be a massive thing, but it is staying almost entirely under the radar until, it seems, it can be presented to the public as a fait accompli.
Kazakhstan for another example plays Russia, China, and the US off each other as much as they can and has struck a sort of unstable balance between them. (whether this actually benefits the people of the country is of course another question but perhaps the chances are slightly better than if it was just completely dominated by a single power?)
I would not be surprised in any way if EU powers understand that they need to have stronger ties to other places, but it's politically delicate to overtly accomplish it...
daddyholes posted:write the effort post and it will go on Front Page
It's been years since I've taken a writing class or written much, so it's probably going to be bad! I don't know, we'll see!
drwhat posted:i think in the long run most countries understand that the US is fucked and they must find new customers for their products asap. even Canada, which is the US proxiest state of all US proxy states, has quietly gone about concluding comprehensive trade agreements with every other national and international body it possibly can over the past 5-10 years. there's so little coverage of this in mainstream media, though, you just see a little tidbit floating by ever so often and it disappears in a day. the Canada-EU comprehensive free trade agreement is going to be a massive thing, but it is staying almost entirely under the radar until, it seems, it can be presented to the public as a fait accompli.
Kazakhstan for another example plays Russia, China, and the US off each other as much as they can and has struck a sort of unstable balance between them. (whether this actually benefits the people of the country is of course another question but perhaps the chances are slightly better than if it was just completely dominated by a single power?)
I would not be surprised in any way if EU powers understand that they need to have stronger ties to other places, but it's politically delicate to overtly accomplish it...
Yep, It looks like the multiple currency area theory is going to pan out.
e:
swampman posted:the great depression was a bolt from the clear... read your history
an exogenous shock if you will
Edited by laika ()
laika posted:daddyholes posted:write the effort post and it will go on Front Page
It's been years since I've taken a writing class or written much, so it's probably going to be bad! I don't know, we'll see!
Well i uh dont know if you read the frontpage recently but....... Its awesome. Its written real good and complex as hell dude. Haha that shit fuckin owns. Lets all go read the front page
Just want to make a quick comment about recent ECB stuff:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ecb-closer-fed-style-stimulus-24039685
The European Central Bank has deployed a raft of aggressive measures to boost Europe's economy, but stopped short of the one many economists insist would do the most to help: large-scale purchases of bonds.
That could change sooner rather than later, analysts say, if inflation remains low.
Purchases of bonds using newly created money — called quantitative easing — have been used with some success so far by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. They can reduce market interest rates, making it cheaper for consumers and businesses to borrow, helping growth.
This would probably mean purchasing them from private banks (what was done in the US) despite the ECB being barred from buying bonds from governments to lower their interest rates/create money.
Among the list of measures the ECB did take on Thursday was an offer of long-term, cheap loans to banks on condition they lend to companies. That condition aims at making sure the money gets to the economy and helps create growth and jobs. The ECB also cut the rate at which it loans to banks to 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent and imposed an unusual negative interest rate of 0.1 percent on deposits from banks — an incentive for them to loan those excess funds.
The problem with lending is that private debt levels are already too high. The whole idea is to give private banks a monopoly on the creation of money that has to be repaid with interest.
Crow posted:laika posted:daddyholes posted:write the effort post and it will go on Front Page
It's been years since I've taken a writing class or written much, so it's probably going to be bad! I don't know, we'll see!Well i uh dont know if you read the frontpage recently but....... Its awesome. Its written real good and complex as hell dude. Haha that shit fuckin owns. Lets all go read the front page
lmao mustang logged into three accounts as of 2:40 pm EST, June 9th, 2014, to downvote this post
Crow posted:Crow posted:laika posted:daddyholes posted:write the effort post and it will go on Front Page
It's been years since I've taken a writing class or written much, so it's probably going to be bad! I don't know, we'll see!Well i uh dont know if you read the frontpage recently but....... Its awesome. Its written real good and complex as hell dude. Haha that shit fuckin owns. Lets all go read the front page
lmao mustang logged into three accounts as of 2:40 pm EST, June 9th, 2014, to downvote this post
at least vothmishiok isnt pming you eugenics literature.
Crow posted:Crow posted:laika posted:daddyholes posted:write the effort post and it will go on Front Page
It's been years since I've taken a writing class or written much, so it's probably going to be bad! I don't know, we'll see!Well i uh dont know if you read the frontpage recently but....... Its awesome. Its written real good and complex as hell dude. Haha that shit fuckin owns. Lets all go read the front page
lmao mustang logged into three accounts as of 2:40 pm EST, June 9th, 2014, to downvote this post
arent like 5 of those upvotes also the 'stang
ilmdge posted:Crow posted:Crow posted:laika posted:daddyholes posted:write the effort post and it will go on Front Page
It's been years since I've taken a writing class or written much, so it's probably going to be bad! I don't know, we'll see!Well i uh dont know if you read the frontpage recently but....... Its awesome. Its written real good and complex as hell dude. Haha that shit fuckin owns. Lets all go read the front page
lmao mustang logged into three accounts as of 2:40 pm EST, June 9th, 2014, to downvote this post
arent like 5 of those upvotes also the 'stang
can't harangue the 'stang
libelous_slander posted:can't harangue the 'stang
wild hoorssessss
jeffery posted:laika, what do you say to the idea that we are entering the next ``crisis`` a-t-m (at-this-moment)?
I don't think the last one ever really ended in some places. Not solving crises, only moving them around and so on. I haven't had the time to follow anything specific like where the next phase will pop up.
The consecration of capitalism comes during the 19th century. With the industrial revolution came Karl Marx who focused on the appropriation of the means of production—and who predicted that capitalism, in its excesses, carried the seeds of its own destruction, the accumulation of capital in the hands of a few, mostly focused on the accumulation of profits, leading to major conflicts, and cyclical crises.
....
Let me begin with economic inclusion. One of the leading economic stories of our time is rising income inequality, and the dark shadow it casts across the global economy.
The facts are familiar. Since 1980, the richest 1 percent increased their share of income in 24 out of 26 countries for which we have data.
In the US, the share of income taken home by the top one percent more than doubled since the 1980s, returning to where it was on the eve of the Great Depression. In the UK, France, and Germany, the share of private capital in national income is now back to levels last seen almost a century ago.
The 85 richest people in the world, who could fit into a single London double-decker, control as much wealth as the poorest half of the global population– that is 3.5 billion people.
With facts like these, it is no wonder that rising inequality has risen to the top of the agenda—not only among groups normally focused on social justice, but also increasingly among politicians, central bankers, and business leaders.
And you have shit like this going on:
“In the last few years, we have seen the fracturing of the American dream,” said the Starbucks chief executive, Howard Schultz, in announcing a company plan to reimburse the cost of college tuition for employees. “The question for all of us is, should we accept that, or should we try to do something about it?”
....
In the conservative view, the free market can take care of everything. But what you’re hearing from bottom-line capitalists is that the system is in deep trouble. “Labor and capital have to share in the rewards of a productive economy, and for the last 25 years labor has gotten the short end of the stick,” said Bill Gross, the founder of the investment firm PIMCO, in a recent interview with Yahoo. Eventually, he said, “it will be destabilizing.”
One corporate titan says the American dream is shattered. Another captain of big money says we’re reaching a breaking point. When the 1 percenters start talking this way, you know we’re in trouble.
Edited by laika ()
ludomartens posted:Nothing is "up" except the world edging closer and closer to the biggest economic crisis since the 1930s despite the best attempts of liberal economists, who are now so desperate they will even consider a return to social-democracy (which won't help either)
Another crisis is inevitable so that's not really saying a whole lot. It's something else entirely to make a specific prediction about where and how it will come up. To take just one example, derivatives have shot up to many multiples of world GDP but where is the breaking point?
the laughable xhosa girl in graph form?
Themselves posted:i wish i knew what the credit suisse fear barometer was, it sounds p awesome
Skew measures the perceived tail risk of the market via the pricing of out-of-the-money options. Generally, a rise in skew indicates that 'crash protection' is in demand among institutional investors (institutional/professional investors are the biggest traders in SPX options). The basic idea is similar to the CSFB 'fear index' or the Ansbacher index (which compares the premiums paid on equidistant calls and puts).
A unusual move in the skew index (which historically oscillates approximately between a value of 100 and 150) is especially interesting when it diverges strongly from the VIX, which measures at the money and close to the money front month SPX option premiums.
Basically what a 'low VIX/high skew' combination is saying is: 'the market overall is complacent, but big investors perceive far more tail risk than usually' (it is exactly the other way around when the VIX is high and SKEW is low).
moe http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/csfb_description.htm
prikryl posted:charts
There we go! I guess I've just been waiting for literally years and the measures taken have "worked" better than I thought they would at re-inflating the bubble
"Personal consumption expenditures also somehow crashed from 3.1% to just 1.0%, far below the 2.4% expected. US GDP has never fallen more than 1.5% except during or just before an NBER-defined recession since quarterly GDP records began in 1947. Even assuming 3% growth every other quarter in 2014 means 2014 GDP will be 1.5% at best.
stocks react:
prikryl posted:
i know this sentence is in english but i have no idea what its supposed to mean
toy posted:no doubt things are bad, but zerohedge is always forecasting an imminent crisis
that's because we exist within an ever expanding and permanent imminent crisis
stegosaurus posted:*scrolls really fast through the charts, in the dark, typing furiously on 3 monitors*
TG posted:prikryl posted:
i know this sentence is in english but i have no idea what its supposed to mean
when an option is "out of the money" it means exercising it will incur a loss. you can stick a % figure on this loss; the higher the % the crappier the option is. now put options pay off when prices fall, call options when prices rise. crappy puts seem to be worth substantially more than crappy calls, therefore it implies everyone's worried about prices of stuff falling even faster than they are now. i think thats the gist of it