#1
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Assumptions:

~1000 MT of copper present above the mineralogical barrier
600 MT has already been mined, 400 left
340 MT left at 85% recovery efficiency
400 MT in-use stock
Consumption 15 MT/year growing at 3%/year
75% recycling rate (only chemical losses during recycling processes)
30 year product life, 1% annual depreciation of copper stock
330 MT renewables implemented linearly 2013-2050
Renewables consumption subtracted out of in use stock with no recycling losses
1.0085% annual pop growth 2013-2050
Society's ability to consume energy is proportional to copper stock

75% recycling:



Realistic (50%) recycling:

Edited by ae4g5g6hsdfgh ()

#2
Mike Nelson here.
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so we're good until 2035? 20-odd years of not caring? fine with me. i don't have kids.
#3
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#4
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setzen einige kraut auf ihm
#5
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http://www.unnecessaryquotes.com/
#6
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well im convinced
#7
Not Your S.H.I.E.L.D.
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your forgetting to factor in the availability of advanced nanoscale metallurgy AKA 3d hyperprinting
#8
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I do not understand any of these charts but anything that'll get more people to die in trench warfare is noble and should be welcomed as such
#9
UNUSUALY COOL
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copper my balls amd butt
#10
[account deactivated]
#11
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#12
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i bullshitted the op as always, the actual resource is like 700 MT not 400 MT, but not all of that is going to be extracted anyway. mercury peaked in 1975 even though there are still supposedly 400 years of resources left.
#13
[account deactivated]
#14
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guys is that chart real? i mean are the numbers legitimate? is that really going to happen? holy cow please somene if the data is wrong then argue him and prove it i can't stand this, is he right??? AHG! my brain can't handle this pressure!

i guess i'm a fascist now.
#15
Kurdt
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bound2hostageXchange posted:

i bullshitted the op as always, the actual resource is like 700 MT not 400 MT, but not all of that is going to be extracted anyway. mercury peaked in 1975 even though there are still supposedly 400 years of resources left.

actually the op was by poster ae4g5g6hsdfgh. i think you'll find that you are mistaken if you examine the facts.

#16
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heres a better graph

#17
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Let's look at electrical solders next. Lead and tin are the main conductive solders. Silver may be used but its even more scarce. Lead production has hit a plateau and tin prices are going up rapidly. Without these materials you can't really make electronics.

Resources Australia lists the Economic Demonstrated Resources (EDRs) for several commodities. These are better than the inferred resources, which are a broader category but usually aren't given value by the market because they're highly speculative.

http://www.ga.gov.au/cedda/publications/1201

Let's assume that the in-use stocks for these resources is similar as the case for copper- the in use stock is equal to half the resources. 20% of the consumption goes to solders, which is probably growing in line with the electrical industry, at least 5% per year. Electrical equipment has a very low recovery rate and even when the government puts a gun to people's heads and tells them to recycle it (eg disposal bans) these regulations have very little effect.

So just subtracting out the solder use alone we find that electronics production will run into problems sometime before 2060.



If we use current electronics industry growth rates of about 10% a year, things run out just in time for the Kurzweilian singularity.






#18
[account deactivated]
#19
Online
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What does mustang19 actually advocate? I think he's a Nazi, but what kind of political and economic systems does that entail? Isn't Nazism, at its end result, basically liberalism?
#20
[account deactivated]
#21
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I think he's a Nazi, but what kind of political and economic systems does that entail? Isn't Nazism, at its end result, basically liberalism?



One of the coolest parts of German/Italian/Spanish Fascism is that they closed off their economies to foreign investment and pursued economic autarchy and resource self-sufficiency. Jewish Capital was restrained from using trade globalization to control the Volk.

#22
Online
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So you subscribe to the Juche idea.
#23
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America's founding fathers wrote the constitution based on the noble ideals of Juche.
#24
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my favourite juche is orange juche with the bits in
#25
Not Your S.H.I.E.L.D.
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bound2hostageXchange posted:

i bullshitted the op as always, the actual resource is like 700 MT not 400 MT, but not all of that is going to be extracted anyway. mercury peaked in 1975 even though there are still supposedly 400 years of resources left.



sure it could be said that mercury peaked in 1975 with A Night At the Opera, Bohemian Rhapsody is without question his most iconic song, but 1977's arguably even more anthemic News of the World actually sold more copies, going quadruple platinum[fig. 1] in the US alone



1.