If you want to win the game, you must join in
Rees Kassen
When governments ignore scientific advice, it is often because researchers do not engage with the political process, says Rees Kassen.
07 December 2011
Scientists tend to blame poor policy decisions on a scientifically illiterate or uninterested political class and a media that oversimplifies ideas or sensationalizes controversy. There is no doubt a nugget of truth here. In the current Canadian parliament, just 17 of 308 MPs hold a first degree in the natural sciences, engineering or health sciences. If parliament reflected national university graduation rates in these fields, there would be 98.
Still, researchers must recognize that poor scientific decisions in politics do not necessarily result from a lack of understanding. They are, rather, a failure of scientists to communicate their message effectively in what is ultimately a political, not a scientific, arena.
I can almost hear the pings of e-mails filling my inbox with counter-examples. The most obvious is taking place right now in South Africa, where we see the continuing reluctance of governments worldwide to deal with climate change, despite the overwhelming evidence. Others will cite the discussions over the proposed pipeline linking the oil sands in Alberta to refineries in Texas, or the teaching of intelligent-design creationism alongside evolution in US high-school science classes — all evidence that science is not getting a fair hearing in policy debates.
Most politicians are not economists, yet in the battle for decision-makers' attention, economists have a history of winning. Perhaps this is because scientists are simply not interested in engaging in the to and fro of politics. Or perhaps it is because we prefer our advice to be accurate and comprehensive, rather than straight to the point and persuasive. Or maybe it is because scientists bear a heavier burden in the public eye for getting things wrong, as the mistakes of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change a couple of years ago seem to suggest.
A former top bureaucrat in the Canadian civil service once gave me the political perspective on this divide: scientists, he said, think too highly of their own view of the world and fail to appreciate the complex, multifarious nature of decision making. Our mistake is to think that science will be given a privileged voice on an issue. This is almost always wrong. From a politician's point of view, science is an interest group like any other.
Certainly, in my experience chairing the Partnership Group for Science and Engineering (PAGSE) — an association of science and engineering societies that conveys the research community's consensus opinion to the Canadian federal government — I have come across a number of situations in which it is the scientists, not the politicians, who have fallen short.
I oversee initiatives designed to engage parliamentarians in discussions on scientific research. One of the most important is testifying before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, which makes recommendations on budget spending to the cabinet. Other activities include our 'Bacon and Eggheads' programme, a breakfast seminar series where top-flight researchers address parliamentarians, their staff, the media and bureaucrats.
PAGSE has had an impact. Although one can rarely be sure what has influenced the inner workings of government decisions, many of its recommendations have at least been in tune with recent actions. Last year, for example, saw the creation of a prestigious, internationally competitive postdoctoral fellowship programme. This was a suggestion that came, in part, from PAGSE.
The relationship is not always so smooth. Last year, a federal minister became interested in the idea of a national biodiversity survey, something biologists had been working towards for some time. When he asked for input, the biological community responded with multiple briefs, some of which undermined one another. Such disagreement offers a perfect excuse not to act, even if the goodwill is there. That is exactly what happened.
Here are three suggestions to build greater trust between scientists and politicians.
First, improve the lines of communication. Opportunities for graduate students and scientists to carry out internships and secondments in a political environment, such as the Congressional Fellows programme run by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, are a start in this direction.
Second, we need scientists to stand for election to public office. Having more people on the inside of the political process who are, or have been, professional scientists should go a long way to increasing understanding among their political colleagues. It also builds trust in the scientific community for the political process.
Third, scientists need to seek opportunities to engage with politicians directly. One possibility, suggested to me once by a senator in the Canadian parliament, is for scientists to volunteer during election time to work in a candidate's office.
The aim must be to increase the receptivity of the political class to science, so that when the time comes to make decisions, science gets at least a fair hearing. This takes time. But, as the saying goes, we get the government we deserve. If, as scientists, we choose not to engage, then we will have only ourselves to blame.
Rees Kassen is an associate professor at the University of Ottawa, chair of the Partnership Group for Science and Engineering and a young scientist of the World Economic Forum.
http://www.nature.com/news/if-you-want-to-win-the-game-you-must-join-in-1.9580
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(Chinese) scientists
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Kassen is an embarassment
A number of past ocean carbon-cycle perturbation events share many of the characteristics of anthropogenic ocean acidification (Fig. 4 and table S1), with the notable exception of the estimated rates of CO2 release. In the general absence of direct proxy evidence for lower pH and reduced saturation before the Pliocene, global carbon cycle models can be used to infer the magnitude of carbon release by fitting observed changes in the δ13C of calcium carbonates and organic remnants (60). However, as well as needing information on the source and isotopic composition of the added carbon, the time scale of δ13C change is critically important to the estimation of CO2 fluxes (25). Because of the lack of open-ocean sediments and increasingly poor temporal and spatial resolution of the geological record further back in time, it is difficult to place adequate constraints on the duration and rate of CO2 release. Radiometric dating techniques are not accurate enough to identify Mesozoic intervals of 10-ky duration, although orbital spectral analysis of highly resolved isotope and/or sedimentological records can help to partly overcome this—for example, if a δ13C excursion is shorter or longer than one precession cycle . Even for the well-studied PETM, the duration of the main phase of this carbon injection is still debated (35, 61), and model-inferred peak rates of ≤1 PgC per year (26, 61) could potentially be an underestimate.
Additional complications arise because carbon may not have been released at a uniform rate and, in the extreme, may have occurred in the form of rapid pulses. In such cases, the assumption of an average emissions rate throughout the entire duration of the pulsed release will fail to capture the potential for episodes of intense acidification. For instance, although the total duration of the CO2 release from the T/J–age Central Atlantic Magmatic Province was estimated to be ~600 ky, pulses as short as ~20 ky have been suggested (51, 62). Similarly, the main phase of OAE1a (excluding the recovery interval) was ~150 ky (45) and hence too slow for carbonate saturation to be significantly affected (Fig. 3), but major volcanic eruptions and thus rapid CO2 release could potentially have produced future-relevant perturbations in the carbon cycle. Substantially improved chronologies and higher-resolution records are needed to refine estimates of rate.
Given current knowledge of the past 300 My of Earth’s history (Fig. 4 and table S1), the PETM and associated hyperthermal events, the T/J, and potentially the P/T all stand out as having excellent potential as analog events, although the T/J and P/T are much more poorly constrained because of the absence of deep-sea carbonate deposits. OAEs may also be relevant but were associated with less severe volcanism (CO2 release) than were the older events (P/T and T/J). The last deglacial transition, although characterized by temperature and CO2-increase, is two orders of magnitude slower than current anthropogenic change. It is also thought to largely represent a redistribution of carbon within the ocean and to the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere and hence did not have as potent and globally uniform an acidification effect as an input from geological reserves. Because of the decoupling between pH and saturation on long time scales (Fig. 3), extended intervals of elevated Pco2 such as the middle Miocene, Oligocene, and Cretaceous can be firmly ruled out as future-relevant analogs.
Additional complications arise because carbon may not have been released at a uniform rate and, in the extreme, may have occurred in the form of rapid pulses. In such cases, the assumption of an average emissions rate throughout the entire duration of the pulsed release will fail to capture the potential for episodes of intense acidification. For instance, although the total duration of the CO2 release from the T/J–age Central Atlantic Magmatic Province was estimated to be ~600 ky, pulses as short as ~20 ky have been suggested (51, 62). Similarly, the main phase of OAE1a (excluding the recovery interval) was ~150 ky (45) and hence too slow for carbonate saturation to be significantly affected (Fig. 3), but major volcanic eruptions and thus rapid CO2 release could potentially have produced future-relevant perturbations in the carbon cycle. Substantially improved chronologies and higher-resolution records are needed to refine estimates of rate.
Given current knowledge of the past 300 My of Earth’s history (Fig. 4 and table S1), the PETM and associated hyperthermal events, the T/J, and potentially the P/T all stand out as having excellent potential as analog events, although the T/J and P/T are much more poorly constrained because of the absence of deep-sea carbonate deposits. OAEs may also be relevant but were associated with less severe volcanism (CO2 release) than were the older events (P/T and T/J). The last deglacial transition, although characterized by temperature and CO2-increase, is two orders of magnitude slower than current anthropogenic change. It is also thought to largely represent a redistribution of carbon within the ocean and to the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere and hence did not have as potent and globally uniform an acidification effect as an input from geological reserves. Because of the decoupling between pH and saturation on long time scales (Fig. 3), extended intervals of elevated Pco2 such as the middle Miocene, Oligocene, and Cretaceous can be firmly ruled out as future-relevant analogs.
Edited by shennong ()
4. spends all my damn money on sequin pants
Neil deGrasse Tyson has some front page article in this months foreign affairs journal about space and im afraid to read it i hate that tepid dude
Is that the guy who wrote The Game? What's he doing writing about space, run out of HB9s here on earth?
Ironicwarcriminal posted:
Is that the guy who wrote The Game? What's he doing writing about space, run out of HB9s here on earth?
perhaps the scientific method and the mystery method are not so different as we think
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science is great. everything you get from science you love and enjoy daily. science also silently takes the blame with honor because you lack the decency to admit that all the problems of the world are a result of your failings as a person and a species and not any outside force
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i'd like to believe in science but i live in san francisco so i dont vaccinate my children instead
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if science is so smart why does it constantly lose to the drooling masses
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tpaine posted:
yes another way religion is unoriginal and unremarkable good job shirley.
how christ-like
aerdil posted:
Neil deGrasse Tyson has some front page article in this months foreign affairs journal about space and im afraid to read it i hate that tepid dude
hahaha Tepid is the perfect word for him. It's kind of funny how mankind used to look to space for guidance and sanction. And now people look to space as if mining asteroids and generational spacetravel spheres coated in ice are good hopeful future, and not convenient distractions while extraction based economies just destroy the human world forever
space our #1 enemy. it must be destroyed...
should we go to space
fuck the space
everyone stay out of space. ur just making more spaceu deburi
space doesn't even exist
everyoen stay out of the Safe space
this is a safe space for space to feel safe in. no matter or energy allowed
my boss went to grad school with neil whatshisface. she said he was busy goofing off most of the time which is why he ended up leaving UT austin until he got to columbia and took things seriously.
true story.
also, i had a pretty cool idea for a science advocacy show that merged concepts between the hard and soft sciences. but alas i'm a mixture of lazy and busy and can never do it. not to mention on one would ever air it.
true story.
also, i had a pretty cool idea for a science advocacy show that merged concepts between the hard and soft sciences. but alas i'm a mixture of lazy and busy and can never do it. not to mention on one would ever air it.
maybe one day i can build a bunch of public clout as a scientist like Neil deGrasse Tyson and not squander it? i guess maybe 25 years down the line if this sad nation still exists.
two words: khan academy
so one of the things i'm professionally interested in is planetary defense. it's always so tempting to make a system and develop it into a doomsday weapon to deflect NEOs into specific targets and literally become a mad scientist.
note to NSA: I'M KIDDING
note to NSA: I'M KIDDING
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guidoanselmi posted:
so one of the things i'm professionally interested in is planetary defense. it's always so tempting to make a system and develop it into a doomsday weapon to deflect NEOs into specific targets and literally become a mad scientist.
note to NSA: I'M KIDDING
note to CIA: he's not kidding
your literal job is nuking it from orbit
note to self: defrost meat pile
my father leaves notes to himself around the house and addresses them to himself
like
like
Tom's dad,
Don't forget the laundry.
Tom's dad
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