ITALY’S constitutional referendum on December 4th seemed to have a clear winner and loser. The Democratic Party (PD), whose leader, Matteo Renzi, resigned as prime minister after his proposals were rejected, emerged bitterly divided. The populist Five Star Movement (M5S), which led the opposition to the reform, was victorious. A fortnight on, it is hard to tell which of Italy’s two biggest parties is in worse shape.

On December 16th police arrived at Rome’s city hall to arrest Raffaele Marra, an official who is accused of accepting a bribe from a property developer (Mr Marra denies this). Mr Marra was a close associate of the M5S mayor, Virginia Raggi. It was the latest in a string of mishaps caused by Ms Raggi’s choice of subordinates. Five days earlier, another city official who is under investigation for alleged violations of environmental law, which she denies, resigned. Mr Marra’s arrest prompted open criticism of Ms Raggi from other leading figures in the M5S. But after a meeting with the mayor, Beppe Grillo, the M5S’s leader, decided she should stay on. “Governing Rome is more difficult than governing the country,” he remarked.

By contrast, the same day, the PD’s mayor of Milan did step down. Giuseppe Sala had risen to prominence as the man in charge of preparations for the city’s world fair, Expo 2015. After learning that he was a suspect in an inquiry that centres on the award of Expo 2015’s juiciest contract, Mr Sala, who denies wrongdoing, suspended himself from office.

His departure heightened the crisis in a party that, by some estimates, has eight squabbling factions and now risks being torn apart by another referendum. On January 11th the constitutional court is expected to authorise a ballot sought by Italy’s biggest trades union federation on rescinding crucial elements of the last government’s proudest achievement: a labour reform passed in 2014. A vote would rip open a divide in the PD between moderates and the party’s left. It would be postponed if an election were called. But the only person who can dissolve parliament is Sergio Mattarella, the president, and he refuses to do so until parliament fixes the mess of electoral laws left by the failed referendum.

Presiding over the PD assembly on December 18th, Mr Renzi proposed reinstating the law in force until 2005, based on Britain’s first-past-the-post system. His suggestion was welcomed by two of the three parties on Italy’s even more divided right. This will pose a dilemma for Mr Grillo, who previously made the same proposal, but whose Movement would be more likely to win under the existing rules.

The referendum appears to have closed a phase in the history of the Italian left. Until 2008, when ideological differences sank a short-lived left-wing government, the strategy of Italy’s moderates had been to form broad coalitions at election time. Since then, the PD has tried to win power alone—an ambition thwarted by the rise of the M5S. With around a quarter of the vote, Mr Grillo’s movement stops left or right alike from securing an overall majority.

Filippo Andreatta, a political scientist at the University of Bologna, argues that the PD has only two ways forward: “grand” coalitions of mainstream parties of left and right, which he calls “suicidal” because they lend credence to the M5S’s contention that traditional parties are all the same, or a return to the earlier strategy of broad left-wing coalitions.

Mr Renzi seems to be moving towards a similar conclusion. At the assembly he said he would be following with interest a project from a former mayor of Milan, Giuliano Pisapia, which aims to bring together groups and individuals on the left. But it will also require someone with a more conciliatory approach to politics than Mr Renzi, a micromanager who cheerfully admits to arrogance. “He is someone who cannot share power,” says Mr Andreatta. He may have to learn how to.

It's so bad that the leader of said center-left party, the Democratic Party, Matteo Renzi,moved back into his parent's basement:

Reuters posted:

Three days after resigning as Italian prime minister and before his successor took office, Matteo Renzi typed a late-night Facebook post from his family home near Florence that seemed to cast doubt on his future.

"I have no seat in parliament, no salary, no pension... I'm starting over," he wrote.

Since stepping down on Dec. 7 after a crushing referendum defeat over his flagship constitutional reform, newspapers have conjured up images of Renzi sitting in rush-hour traffic while driving his three kids to school, writing his memoirs and entertaining lucrative job offers outside politics.

But the truth is that Renzi has set up an office in his basement where he meets advisers and spends hours on the phone with party allies plotting his path back to power, two sources close to the 41-year-old said.

Renzi staked his government on the plan designed to make Italy more governable but which almost 20 million voters rejected in the referendum. The loss left him, and his Democratic Party (PD), "navigating without a compass", one PD source said.

The former boy scout's rise from the political ashes is far from certain. But he appears determined to capitalize on his continued appeal within the PD and looks keen to shape Italy's future political landscape.

Renzi, who remains leader of the party, fears his absence could open the door to extremists on the right and left.

Any comeback would probably involve championing progressive reforms while challenging European budget austerity and migrant policy, as he did during his first - and so far only - term that lasted less than three years.

Despite the disagreements with Brussels, he wants to keep Italy at the heart of the European project, unlike the increasingly popular anti-euro 5-Star Movement which would be one of the main obstacles to a return to office.

Even if he does succeed, it may mean teaming up with former premier Silvio Berlusconi - as the PD had to do in 2013 - to keep the 5-Star out of power.

No clear winner would emerge if an election were held now, according to opinion polls, with the PD, the centre-right and anti-establishment 5-Star each drawing a third of voters.

First, Renzi will have to reassert his hold on the fractious PD. But if that fails, he is ready to consider forming a new party, provided a new electoral law makes that advantageous, two separate PD sources told Reuters.

Unlike in Britain, where David Cameron left politics soon after losing the Brexit referendum, Italy has a history of prime ministers returning to power after defeat. Berlusconi had four terms while Christian Democrat Giulio Andreotti served five times as premier from the 1970s to the 1990s.

On Sunday, Renzi stood before more than 1,000 PD members and pledged "an extraordinary listening campaign" to electors in January as the party enters a "Zen" phase of reflection before moving forward.

Silence and meditation have never been traits associated with the fast-talker, who was Italy's youngest prime minister when he seized power in a party coup in 2014. Three months later, the PD won almost 41 percent of the vote in European elections, a level of consensus last reached by the then-dominant but now defunct Christian Democrat party in 1958.

RENZI'S POPULARITY

Renzi's return to Tuscany and a rumored new book belie a tactical threat to PD rivals who want him to step down as party secretary and make way for new blood, PD sources said, because his retreat would leave the party severely hobbled.

The PD would win only about 10 percent of the vote if Renzi left the party and ran solo, two separate polls showed. Even after the referendum, his leadership was backed by between half and two-thirds of PD voters, two different surveys showed.

"I'm convinced that - as polls say - Renzi is the leader recognized by the PD base by a huge margin compared with other candidates," Anna Ascani, a PD lawmaker close to Renzi, told Reuters.

Roberto Speranza, a member of the minority left-wing faction of the bloc, has already said he would run for the party leadership, and two others have expressed a similar aim, but none of them has nearly the same following as Renzi.

"It's in Renzi's interest to accelerate the process and go to a vote as soon as possible to head off any internal rivals," said Federico Benini, the head of polling agency Winpoll.

It is still unclear whether there will be early national elections in the first half of 2017, or whether the legislature will head to the end of its term in 2018. Renzi has said he favors a snap vote.

But parliament is unlikely to adopt new voting rules until after a Constitutional Court ruling on the lower house electoral law, which is expected at the end of January. The court will also rule on whether to allow another referendum - this time on Renzi's labor reform - in January.

Meanwhile, Renzi is in his basement putting into practice the boy scout motto he knows well - "Be prepared". In 2009 his election as Florence's mayor proved to be a springboard to the prime ministership. Before getting there, however, he lost a 2012 primary election to party rival Pier Luigi Bersani.

"A leader is someone who admits a loss and then says, 'Let's see how we can restart again,'" Renzi said on Sunday as most of the party members in the auditorium cheered him on.

Even though Renzi is desperate for a comeback, both The Economist and the Italian left agree that this is the end of the Democratic Party and of Italian politics as-usual in general. What follows is an analysis from the Italian communist party, Frente Popolare:

ONE CHEER FOR ITALIAN REFERENDUM VOTE

By John Catalinotto posted on December 18, 2016

Nearly 70 percent of eligible voters in Italy turned out to vote on a referendum on changes to the constitution on Dec. 5 that would strengthen the executive office and the larger parties. Nearly 60 percent voted “No,” which both rejected the proposed changes and forced the young Democratic Party Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to resign.

Workers’ organizations and reactionary parties had urged a “No” vote during the campaign. The big bosses’ organizations, bankers and pro-European Union politicians, including Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Barack Obama, urged a “Yes” vote.

Most left and communist organizations in Italy agree that the “No” vote was better than a “Yes.” They also agree that while this prevented a defeat, it is only the beginning of a struggle to defend workers’ rights.

While the referendum has some surface similarities to last June’s Brexit vote, it has a different political content. In Britain, a major focus of the Brexit victory was a reactionary, anti-immigrant appeal. Not so in Italy.

Renzi is a politician similar to Bill Clinton in the 1990s in the U.S. and the Labor Party’s Tony Blair in the 2000s in Britain. These three politicians all chipped away at gains that the working class had made when unions and other working-class organizations were relatively stronger. Also, Renzi was cooperating with NATO militarization in Italy.

When Renzi introduced the referendum last year, he staked his own political survival on its approval. At that point, all of Renzi’s opponents — especially those from the right — seized on the referendum as a way to attack Renzi and the Democratic Party. These included the anti-immigrant Northern League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. The anti-corruption and eurosceptic Five-Star Movement — which can’t be called right or left at this point — played a leading role.

It was only with a general strike and a national demonstration on Oct. 21 and 22, called by the United Rank-and-File Union, that the working class began to show some independent leadership rejecting Renzi’s proposals. Some grass-roots organizations continued working for a “No” in the referendum.

This resulted in the large working-class rejection of Renzi’s changes. Especially large rejections came from young people and the poorer regions of the country, such as the islands of Sardinia and Sicily.

The Italian pro-communist organization Fronte Popolare reported in the Nov. 4 Workers World on the October strike and demonstration. This group draws the following positive but sober conclusion regarding how to proceed after the “No” vote:

“The Italian working classes, youth, the more conscious sectors of our society have given a clear message at the polls of the urgent need for a radical change of the present state of things.

“To live up to their expectations and avoid a new qualitative leap in the reactionary drift –- which with a ‘Yes’ victory would have been certain, but that the ‘No’ does not in itself stop — is the responsibility that the moment hands us. Let us be up to the task ahead!” (frontepopolare.net, Dec. 5)

What's interesting, and not mentioned by the Frente's analysis, is the rise of the Five Star Movement. Jacobin thinks they're fascists, but we don't like Jacobin so what is the rhizzone analysis? Have we got any Italian lurkers? The 5SM often appeals to California Liberal-type solutions to the crisis of capitalist democracy like e-democracy and "degrowth" economics while at the same time being anti-EU and protectionist. Their stance on immigration isn't clear in English publications. What do we make of this new party, is it just an Italianized version of European populism? What special characteristics does it have and how much do they matter?