babyfinland posted:aerdil posted:
how weird would it be if gaddafi true believers retook libya and began implemented green book policies to the very letter... hmmmthat is never going to happen
best case scenario is a anti-zionist saudi-backed sunni bloc across north africa and the med coast, with a tense peace between them and iran hinging on turkish and russian exploitation
yknow i think its entirely possible that we might see some Actual Mass Proletarian Movements, egyptian 'democracy' is weak as hell and while its susceptible to outside influences the political subjectivity of the people shouldnt be discounted as a factor!! im hopeful as shit
deadken posted:babyfinland posted:aerdil posted:
how weird would it be if gaddafi true believers retook libya and began implemented green book policies to the very letter... hmmmthat is never going to happen
best case scenario is a anti-zionist saudi-backed sunni bloc across north africa and the med coast, with a tense peace between them and iran hinging on turkish and russian exploitationyknow i think its entirely possible that we might see some Actual Mass Proletarian Movements, egyptian 'democracy' is weak as hell and while its susceptible to outside influences the political subjectivity of the people shouldnt be discounted as a factor!! im hopeful as shit
egypt is really rockin. if something does materialize it's not going to look like the formalist communism of 1917 or 49 but yeah there's definite possibilities there and we should keep our eyes and minds open~
i have a lot of trust in egyptians, they seem to know whats up and how to deploy their energy
deadken posted:
yeah but we're in a kinda holding pattern now until the eternal idea of communism finds another instantiation, 20th century communism is dead and while mass movements still exist they lack a proper ideological articulation which is why you get stuff like popular islamism and the incoherency of the occupy movement...... something big's coming, i can feel it
*bbbbbbbbBBBFFARRAAARRRTTTTPPPPTTTTT*
babyfinland posted:
anti-zionist saudi-backed sunni bloc
is this even possible at all? why would the sly courting of israel stop?
getfiscal posted:christmas_cheer posted:
It's too bad nobody will survive World War 3"I don't know what weapons we will fight World War 3 with, but World War 4 will be fought with sticks and stones." - Beyonce Knowles
maybe she should "knowles" an issue of janes defence sometime
http://www.forbes.com/2010/12/15/ge-saudi-arabia-markets-equities-nuclear.html
General Electric is going global in its effort to expand its energy business. After acquiring British pipeline products company Wellstream Monday, and announcing a deal to supply generators for oil and gas fields to Saudi Aramco Tuesday, the conglomerate's nuclear energy joint venture is looking to secure atomic power contracts with Saudi Arabia's government.
While the Kingdom is the world's largest oil exporter, power demand is growing approximately 8% per year, prompting authorities to investigate alternative sources of power, that can ease the demand on its primary source of income. Under President George W. Bush, the U.S. pledged to provide "training and support to build a civil nuclear program" in Saudi Arabia. This month, a delegation led by a top official in the Commerce Department brought together 11 U.S. companies with Saudi officials.
Fascistic theocratic dictatorship with no national elections or political parties having a nuclear energy program = Good
Fascistic theocratic dictatorship that at least has national elections and political parties having a nuclear energy program = Bad
And of course Pakistan's nuclear weapons are ok as long as the U.S. can murder their people.
Does anyone still doubt that the West deserves to collapse under the weight of its own hypocrisy?
jools posted:
how is iran fascistic
he means saudi numb nuts
cleanhands posted:jools posted:
how is iran fascistiche means saudi numb nuts
how is saudi fascistic Lol
cleanhands posted:jools posted:
how is iran fascistiche means saudi numb nuts
read the post dumbass
blinkandwheeze posted:cleanhands posted:jools posted:
how is iran fascistiche means saudi numb nuts
read the post dumbass
absolutely not
discipline posted:
tom how on earth is anything legit supported by watan elsauud "anti-zionist" lol
https://twitter.com/#!/NYTFriedman/status/158227835738267649
deadken posted:
any future movement must come from within the rebel camp and i think thats possible, the movement is ideologically very heterogeneous
what are you basing this on? the only person i know who's been there since the revolution is a reporter who was interviewing rebels. he told me that the vast majority of them don't have any strong ideological convictions at all. i havent seen any other reportage that would indicate that the rebels are some mosaic of political ideologies either
aerdil posted:discipline posted:
tom how on earth is anything legit supported by watan elsauud "anti-zionist" lolhttps://twitter.com/#!/NYTFriedman/status/158227835738267649
lol @ all of that account;s tweets
aerdil posted:
https://twitter.com/#!/NYTFriedman/status/158227835738267649
NYTFriedman To Debate PATycho
shennong posted:deadken posted:
any future movement must come from within the rebel camp and i think thats possible, the movement is ideologically very heterogeneouswhat are you basing this on? the only person i know who's been there since the revolution is a reporter who was interviewing rebels. he told me that the vast majority of them don't have any strong ideological convictions at all. i havent seen any other reportage that would indicate that the rebels are some mosaic of political ideologies either
ideological heterogeneity can exist independent of actual stated ideologies... the rebel camp has a bunch of islamists and salafists (themselves unstable ideologies) alongside pro-ntc liberals, secular democrats opposed to the ntc, tribalist conservatives, bored young people who just wanted to shoot some guns.... that a range of ideological commitments exists can be p easily seen in the wave of protests and counter-protests in benghazi in december.... there's no explicitly communist movement yet but i wouldnt be surprised to see a lot of egypt-style labour agitation a-comin out of tripoli in the near future
deadken posted:shennong posted:deadken posted:
any future movement must come from within the rebel camp and i think thats possible, the movement is ideologically very heterogeneouswhat are you basing this on? the only person i know who's been there since the revolution is a reporter who was interviewing rebels. he told me that the vast majority of them don't have any strong ideological convictions at all. i havent seen any other reportage that would indicate that the rebels are some mosaic of political ideologies either
ideological heterogeneity can exist independent of actual stated ideologies... the rebel camp has a bunch of islamists and salafists (themselves unstable ideologies) alongside pro-ntc liberals, secular democrats opposed to the ntc, tribalist conservatives, bored young people who just wanted to shoot some guns.... that a range of ideological commitments exists can be p easily seen in the wave of protests and counter-protests in benghazi in december.... there's no explicitly communist movement yet but i wouldnt be surprised to see a lot of egypt-style labour agitation a-comin out of tripoli in the near future
egyptian labor has been organized and active for years though.
deadken posted:shennong posted:deadken posted:
any future movement must come from within the rebel camp and i think thats possible, the movement is ideologically very heterogeneouswhat are you basing this on? the only person i know who's been there since the revolution is a reporter who was interviewing rebels. he told me that the vast majority of them don't have any strong ideological convictions at all. i havent seen any other reportage that would indicate that the rebels are some mosaic of political ideologies either
ideological heterogeneity can exist independent of actual stated ideologies... the rebel camp has a bunch of islamists and salafists (themselves unstable ideologies) alongside pro-ntc liberals, secular democrats opposed to the ntc, tribalist conservatives, bored young people who just wanted to shoot some guns.... that a range of ideological commitments exists can be p easily seen in the wave of protests and counter-protests in benghazi in december.... there's no explicitly communist movement yet but i wouldnt be surprised to see a lot of egypt-style labour agitation a-comin out of tripoli in the near future
ok, but if ideologies are unstated, how are you assessing the relative heterogeneity of that population? again the only thing i've heard about the rebels is that virtually none of them express any kind of political leaning, at least not to reporters. obviously you've got a few liberals calling into western news shows or whatever but i haven't seen any actual evidence re the political composition of the rebels, and i'd be interested to see any you've run across
Most discussions of possible United States military operations in the Persian Gulf, should Iran try to prevent maritime traffic from going through the Strait of Hormuz, generally say that while it would not be a cakewalk, it would not be an enormously difficult task either.
But that conventional wisdom is wrong, according to a recent report issued by an independent, non-profit public policy research institute in Washington DC. The report found that the traditional post-Cold War US military ability to project power overseas with few serious challenges to its freedom of action may be rapidly drawing to a close.
While such conclusions have been voiced before, most notably in regard to capabilities being developed by the People's Republic of China - which is developing an anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) battle network that could constrain the US military's ability to maneuver in the air, sea, undersea, space and cyber-space operating domains - China is hardly the only country that has developed such options.
According to the report published by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), "Iran, in particular, has been investing in new capabilities that could be used to deter, delay or prevent effective US military operations in the Persian Gulf. Iran's acquisitions of weapons that it could use to deny access to the Gulf, control the flow of oil and gas from the region, and conduct acts of aggression or coercion, are of grave concern to the United States and its security partners."
The report, "Outside-In: Operating from Range to Defeat Iran's Anti-Access and Area-Denial Threats" notes that Iran has been preparing for a possible military confrontation with the United States for decades. Instead of engaging in a direct military competition, which would be pitting its weaknesses against US strengths, Iran has developed an asymmetric "hybrid" A2/AD strategy that mixes advanced technology with guerilla tactics to deny US forces basing access and maritime freedom of maneuver.
Even if Iran did not disrupt Gulf maritime traffic for long, it could still have a devastating impact. A recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz would "neutralize a large part of current OPEC spare capacity," saying "alternative routes exist, but only for a tiny fraction of the amounts shipped through the strait, and they may take some time to operationalize while transportation costs would rise significantly."
"A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would constitute, and be perceived by markets to presage, sharply heightened global geopolitical tension involving a much larger and unprecedented disruption," it said.
The IMF said that "supply disruption would likely have a large effect on prices, not only reflecting relatively insensitive supply and demand in the short run but also the current state of oil market buffers".
"A halt of Iran's exports to OECD economies without offset from other sources would likely trigger an initial oil price increase of around 20-30% (about US$20-30 a barrel currently), with other producers or emergency stock releases likely providing some offset over time," the report showed.
It stressed that "a Strait of Hormuz closure could trigger a much larger price spike, including by limiting offsetting supplies from other producers in the region".
"If you could cut off oil flow for even several weeks the global economy would be in depression. That would be a serious price to pay; it is a sobering thought," according to Patrick Cronin, a senior advisor at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington DC think-tank.
Attacking ships is not the only option available to Iran to disrupt oil supplies, according to Cronin. In a phone interview with Asia Times Online he said, "Forget about shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, you could hit the oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia; that would have enormous impact."
Cronin, who was involved in the reflagging of oil tankers during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, agrees that the Iranian ability to disrupt maritime traffic is real. "Iran is acquiring greater capabilities and has geographical advantages. Even back in the 1980s, we were very worried."
Currently, aside from military factors, Iran can take advantage of a number of political and demographic realities.
For example, the populations, governments and much of the wealth of the region are concentrated in a handful of urban areas within range of Iran's ballistic missiles. While attacks against Gulf cities may have little direct military utility, their psychological and political impact on regional governments could be significant, especially if Iran demonstrated the capacity to arm its missiles with chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear warheads.
And, as most analysts recognize, Iran could also mobilize its network of predominately Shi'ite proxy groups located across Southwest Asia to conduct acts of terrorism and foment insurrection in states that remain aligned with the United States.
Iran's proxies could become far more dangerous should Iran arm them with guided rockets, artillery, mortars and missiles (G-RAMM). Other groups, like the Lebanese Hezbollah, could conduct a terrorism campaign designed to broaden the crisis and hold US rear areas - even the US homeland - at risk.
And while that indirect approach may not succeed, Iran could use its ballistic missiles and proxy forces to attack US bases and forces in the Persian Gulf directly.
Iran's hybrid strategy would continue at sea, where its naval forces would engage in swarming "hit-and-run" attacks using sophisticated guided munitions in the confined and crowded waters of the Strait of Hormuz and possibly out into the Gulf of Oman. Iran could coordinate these attacks with salvos of anti-ship cruise missiles and swarms of unmanned aircraft launched either from the Iranian shore or from the islands guarding the entrance to the Persian Gulf.
The problem for US forces is that any conflict in the Gulf is going to be extremely non-permissive. The environment will be filled with guided ballistic and cruise missiles, maritime swarming tactics, proxy forces equipped with G-RAMM, and the threat of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attacks.
The fact that other countries are deploying anti-access capabilities is not news to the Pentagon. This month, it released a Joint Operational Access Concept report and noted many of the same anti-access/area-denial capabilities mentioned in the CSBA report.
According to the CSBA report, if the US military is to successfully sustain access to the Persian Gulf against a determined effort by Iran to shut if off, it would need more than weapons. It would also need a new operational concept "that reduces its emphasis on capabilities that are over-optimized for permissive threat environments in order to prioritize capabilities needed for a range of operations in environments that will be increasingly non-permissive in nature" that it currently does not have.
Achieving this within an increasingly constrained budget would require defense planners to make difficult decisions; "the United States cannot meet the challenges that Iran could pose to its vital interests in the Gulf by simply spending more and adding new capabilities and capacity," according to the report.
Interestingly, in light of the latest US national security strategy report that emphasizes Asia as the strategic theater of concern, the report found that the capabilities needed to support such a concept for the Western Pacific and an outside-in enabling concept for the Persian Gulf have a "remarkable amount of overlap".
Both emphasize the need to develop new long-range systems such as penetrating bombers and carrier-based unmanned aircraft; increase the US Navy's undersea magazine of standoff munitions; improve air and missile defenses; and pursue forward posture initiatives that will complicate the operational planning of an enemy force.
I am not surprised that Hebrew indeed has a popular expression, ‘Hold me back’. It’s a convenient thing to say in a street fight when you tell the bystanders to hold you back so that you don’t hit the big chap in front of you who towers over you and can make pulp out of you if he chooses to.
Israel is a grandmaster in using this expression with perfect timing. Timing is important, because you know if it is articulated even a clutch of minutes too late, you are left with no option but to hit the big guy, which of course would have disastrous consequences. And, alternatively, if you don’t hit, you get badly exposed as the little guy who keeps pretending he is what he isn’t in actual prowess.
Predictably, Israel is once again reviving the ‘threat’ that it is about to attack Iran. Al Jazeera has a useful piece by the well-known American Jewish commentator M J Rosenberg giving the chronicle of such Israeli threats in current history. Of course, none of those threats in the recent years was carried out. Reason? It’s rather simple: Israeli military and security establishment is inhabited by cooly rational human beings who would know their country’s real military strengths and weaknesses and won’t allow themselves easily to get carried away by insane politicians.
So, why does Israel make a living out of making such hollow verbal threats? Actually, the threats aren’t that hollow, either. They have a greater logic and they serve a purpose. Israel is conveying a message to the political class in Washington : ‘Do something more on the Iran front’. In the present case, too, the timing is important. Nothing horrifies Israel more than the prospect of the negotiations resuming on the Iran nuclear issue. Israel is terrified of the spectre of the ‘5+1′ negotiations gaining traction. Derailing the diplomatic / political track is, in essence, the constant Israeli objective. Israel knows that the logical next steps of the diplomatic track would sooner rather than later bring the Iranian and American diplomats face to face.
So, Israel is resuming the plea, ‘Hold me back’. Read the hilarious AP dispatch conveying the desperate mood in Israel. The israeli war cry is already beginning to resonate in Washington. The folks on The Hill, who receive generous funding from the Israeli Lobby, are scurrying around seeking more action on Iran. Another set of US sanctions against Iran seems to be in the works.
The US administration has a problem on its hands. It also needs to pay heed to the warning by the influential Fox News that Iran could prove to be the ‘wild card’ in the 2012 presidential election. President Barack Obama knows this is going to be a tight race — unless Newt Gingrich manages to secure the Republican ticket and makes a fool of himself in the campaign in comparison with whom the incumbent president looks an infinitely better proposition.
The challenge facing Obama is to ride out the wave of the Israel-driven war hysteria and finesse it so as to garner political mileage out of it in the campaign, but without really having to go to a war with Iran (for which, Obama knows better than anyone else on the planet that America lacks the capacity or motivation). Ideally, Obama’s cause would have been well served if he had the option to go for a limited military strike against Iran — like Bill Clinton did by firing the odd cruise missiles at Kandahar from a safe distance — but it is a non-option today unless there is absolute, fool-proof, one hundred percent, verifiable guarantee that Tehran won’t retaliate, which of course is lacking.
Fortunately, Obama has a seasoned politician in defence secretary Leon Panetta. So, Panetta has taken over. He quickly revises his earlier opinion and now says Iran would have the capacity to make a bomb within an year if it indeed decides to have one and if that happens, and if the US intelligence gets evidence of Iran having a nuclear programme, then, he wouldn’t rule out exercising any option to prevent Iran on its track. Fair enough. It is a conjecture that doesn’t have to unduly upset Tehran. At the same time, he has not contradicted the Israelis although he may have poured a bit of water on their hysteria over Iran.
Meanwhile, Pentagon has dispatched more warships to the Persian Gulf. The great danger in this ongoing charade is that at some point without any of these able protagonists quite intending it, a spark may appear that may well escalate into an apocalyptic conflagration in no time.
The Israeli fear of having to live on a lonely planet isn’t without basis, though, given Iran’s savviness on the diplomatic front. Iran has complete mastery of the art of diplomacy and trusts its skills to serve the country’s core interests as far as possible. The post-2003 Iraqi saga is a brilliant example.
Unsurprisingly, Iran has already begun making good political capital out of the current visit by the IAEA inspectors to Tehran. The IAEA team includes two carefully hand-picked weapons inspectors who probably set out from Vienna with the brief to somehow put Tehran on the mat. But Iranian hosts are now pleading with them to extend their 3-day visit beyond January 30 so that they can visit even more nuclear installations and talk to the Iranian scientists and satisfy themselves there is no bomb-making programme.
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2012/01/31/persian-guile-drives-israel-crazy/
Edited by babyfinland ()
shennong posted:deadken answer my q or i will contact the relevant los angeles area authorities about your shaheed sex practices. i have many dealings with the sherrif.
shennong posted:
deadken answer my q or i will contact the relevant los angeles area authorities about your nasheed sex practices. i have many dealings with the sherrif.
wHoops. i will do this when i am not drunk