A leaked copy of the world’s most authoritative climate study reveals scientific forecasts of imminent doom were drastically wrong.
The Mail on Sunday has obtained the final draft of a report to be published later this month by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the ultimate watchdog whose massive, six-yearly ‘assessments’ are accepted by environmentalists, politicians and experts as the gospel of climate science.
They are cited worldwide to justify swingeing fossil fuel taxes and subsidies for ‘renewable’ energy.
Yet the leaked report makes the extraordinary concession that the world has been warming at only just over half the rate claimed by the IPCC in its last assessment, published in 2007.
Back then, it said that the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2C every decade – a figure it claimed was in line with the forecasts made by computer climate models.
But the new report says the true figure since 1951 has been only 0.12C per decade – a rate far below even the lowest computer prediction.
The 31-page ‘summary for policymakers’ is based on a more technical 2,000-page analysis which will be issued at the same time. It also surprisingly reveals: IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures – and not taken enough notice of natural variability.
lThey recognise the global warming ‘pause’ first reported by The Mail on Sunday last year is real – and concede that their computer models did not predict it. But they cannot explain why world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase since 1997.
lThey admit large parts of the world were as warm as they are now for decades at a time between 950 and 1250 AD – centuries before the Industrial Revolution, and when the population and CO2 levels were both much lower.
lThe IPCC admits that while computer models forecast a decline in Antarctic sea ice, it has actually grown to a new record high. Again, the IPCC cannot say why.
lA forecast in the 2007 report that hurricanes would become more intense has simply been dropped, without mention.
This year has been one of the quietest hurricane seasons in history and the US is currently enjoying its longest-ever period – almost eight years – without a single hurricane of Category 3 or above making landfall.
I hate to be a broken record about this but it really cannot be stressed enough just how disgustingly hubristic, flawed, petulant and evasive Scientists can be in pursuit of their filthy lucre and hollow awards.
defund the IPCC now
ilmdge posted:why do all those lines start at 1980. is that graph only showing models from 35 years ago
i dunno, the point it that scientists keep lying and misrepresenting data and creating a climate of fear and pessimism that our children have to suffer, all so this white-suited cabal can have their little hor'dourves and junkets and prostitutes
Ironicwarcriminal posted:scientists keep lying and misrepresenting data and creating a climate of fear and feminism
fixed
EmanuelaOrlandi posted:Ironicwarcriminal posted:scientists keep lying and misrepresenting data and creating a climate of fear and feminism
fixed
tpaine posted:post more from that guy's comic, post china mieville, post johnathen turkuden, post Ging Mubly,
but yo does this mean i can stop trippin on the enviroment and pour my insecticides down the sink and shit?? i think theres spiders down there.
babyfinland posted:fuck those spider bitches
nice anti-semitism
AmericanNazbro posted:global warming coinciding with a decent towards a second great depression will probably kill a couple billion people, tbh
Time continuing to move forward will kill probably 7 billion or more in the next 40-80 yrs, imho
Keven posted:AmericanNazbro posted:global warming coinciding with a decent towards a second great depression will probably kill a couple billion people, tbh
Time continuing to move forward will kill probably 7 billion or more in the next 40-80 yrs, imho
The historical inevitability of communism and its requisite socialist programs will probably kill a similar number in the same span. Crisis averted people.
Keven posted:AmericanNazbro posted:global warming coinciding with a decent towards a second great depression will probably kill a couple billion people, tbh
Time continuing to move forward will kill probably 7 billion or more in the next 40-80 yrs, imho
Indeed which is why it's impossible to quantify how many people die "directly" as a result of declining living conditions, as compared to like, say a bullet to the head. but i'm pretty sure the amount of displacement, lack of water/food, the subaltern groups will experience, not to mention all the wars that will occur as a result, will total over a billion or maybe two. i think bacteria will be a bigger concern this century 'cuz we're getting strains of antibiotic resistance bacteria, combine that with destruction of infrastructure, namely sewage treatment + lack of water, you are setting up conditions for mass epidemics.
Now, if we had MTW this would never happen.
babyfinland posted:Keven posted:AmericanNazbro posted:global warming coinciding with a decent towards a second great depression will probably kill a couple billion people, tbh
Time continuing to move forward will kill probably 7 billion or more in the next 40-80 yrs, imho
The historical inevitability of communism and its requisite socialist programs will probably kill a similar number in the same span. Crisis averted people.
Ahem
I'm going to have to correct your mistake here and point out it is the Capitalists doing the killing and the vanguard are simply defending themselves from violence. You can place those deaths under capitalism's scoreboard.
But now, with the IPCC unable to convincingly explain the recent stall in warming (some say a change to weak cooling), the fact that they are forced to actually recognize reality and make changes in their report — possibly reducing the lower bound for future warming, thus reducing the range of climate sensitivity — is quite momentous.
It might well be that so widespread is the public knowledge of the hiatus in warming, recovering Arctic sea ice (at least temporarily), continuing expansion of Antarctic sea ice, failed predictions of previous IPCC reports, etc., are forcing them to do something to save face. Maybe even to keep from being de-funded.
For the last 10-20 years or more, a few of us have been saying that the IPCC has been ignoring the elephant in the room…that the real climate system is simply not as sensitive to CO2 emissions as they claim. Of course, the lower the climate sensitivity, the less of a problem global warming and climate change becomes.
This elephant has had to be ignored at all costs. What, the globe isn’t warming from manmade CO2 as fast as we predicted? Then it must be manmade aerosols cooling things off. Or the warming is causing the deep ocean to heat up by hundredths or thousandths of a degree. Any reason except reduced climate sensitivity, because low climate sensitivity might mean we really don’t have to worry about global warming after all.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/a-turning-point-for-the-ipcc-and-humanity/
ilmdge posted:That was cool what Italy did to those earthquake scientists
totally, and i'd like to see something similar happen to climatologists when the fraud can no longer be maintained. These duplicitous cretins and rent-seekers should be held to account not only for the money they have stolen, but for the climate of fear and hopelessness they've stoked amongst our children.
fucked up that the same weepy liberals who see theocrats around every corner and keep a copy of the handmaids tale in their back pocket are more than happy to buy into this stupid global warming sorcery just because someone in a white coat rather than a white collar is selling it to them.
