#1
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2132

Edited by Lucille ()

#2
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why would there be a 10x increase in energy consumption? the tendency is towards efficiency improvements
#3
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Okay PanoptiKKKon if we assume zero growth and only half power supplied by nuclear, half of reserves are consumed by 3000 AD.
#4
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For anyone else: Panopticon is trolling me with the same arguments I used to troll him with when I was a liberal.

I'm still a liberal, but more like a doughnut liberal, that is a liberal who liberaled so hard they came out the other side and back.
#5
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Optimistic case (energy consumption grows 5x) we're at 25% depletion in 2146, 50% in 2190, and complete depletion in 2281.

Boy I love being a nerd, I guess Game of Thrones really is hard scifi.
#6
Mike Nelson here.
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uhhh i'm not going to be alive in 2100 probably?
#7
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will the elimination of common electricity access finally kill the consumerist beast?
#8
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Lucille posted:

Optimistic case (energy consumption grows 5x) we're at 25% depletion in 2146, 50% in 2190, and complete depletion in 2281.

Boy I love being a nerd, I guess Game of Thrones really is hard scifi.


Yeah, but if historical materialism is wrong things will stay pretty much as they are because enough people now know that liberal democracy and a regulated market economy are the systems best suited to human flourishing.

#9
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There will be no human flourishing, human flourishing is made possible by fossil fuel intensive industrial society.

#10
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Whale oil bitch
#11
Mike Nelson here.
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i'm pretty sure the right set of incentives under president laura bush will transform our energy situation using new technologies we can only dream of today
#12
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The thing about transhumanism is how unscientific it is. We've already probed all the elements on the periodic table from every angle. We're aware of all the viable fuels and when they'll run out. There is no magical mystery crap to discover.

While previous malthusian warnings were based on social behavior, the current ones are based on inherent physical limits.
#13
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We need to kill 6999 million people to ensure a green energy future.
#14
[account deactivated]
#15
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No, we still need a reproductively viable population.
#16
Not Your S.H.I.E.L.D.
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Lucille posted:

2132



2112

#17
Not Your S.H.I.E.L.D.
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Lucille posted:

There will be no human flourishing, human flourishing is made possible by fossil fuel intensive industrial society.



by definition, flourishing is extravagant and superfluous

#18
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When the last leviathan is gone, darkness will fall.
#19
political car tune
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September 11th, 2101
#20
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There are a few things that will make uranium run out sooner. One, higher energy costs will mean lower industrial productivity and higher materials costs. Two, there will of course be uranium consumption before 2100 too. Three, phosphate will be peaking at the same time, and it's expected to be a U source.
#21
Not Your S.H.I.E.L.D.
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with his back to a raging inferno, Man digs ever deeper into the cold dead scab of Earth in search of warmth
#22
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Pretty much yeah.
#23
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http://www.altenergymag.com/emagazine.php?issue_number=06.06.01&article=waterstorage

The global technically feasible wind potential is 96 PWh. Global energy consumption is 138 PWh. US per capita energy consumption is six times the global average.
#24
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http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/JDEnPolicyPt1.pdf

Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I:
Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure,
and materials

Mark Z. Jacobsona,n
, Mark A. Delucchi b,1

It would require 1.7 billion 3 KW PV systems to power the world. 265 million for the US.
#25
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http://newenergytimes.com/v2/conferences/2004/ICCF11/pres/116-Grob-Survey.pdf

ISEO
World Renewable Energy Survey

Compiled and edited by
Gustav R. Grob, F.IP, Executive Secretary ISEO
Chairman of the ISO/TC 203/WG3 Committee
“Analyses and Statistics of Energy Systems”
assisted by ISEO Staff and NGO Experts

//

What? There's only 6 PWh feasible solar potential?
#26
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http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/49339.pdf

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/solar/house.html

You get $70,000/job in solar at $35,000/panel. This implies each panel requires two workers. To power half the US requires 70 million workers. Dividing by system life (30 years) means 2 million workers, or the entire construction industry.
#27
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that's good, there are 12 million unemployed people in the united states right now. that's enough to staff entirely new branches of logistics and infrastructure to support a radical restructuring of society on leninist-windturbinist lines
#28
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You can't enslave skilled labor Pan. It doesn't work. Probably about 1/4th of that 2 million will be electricians and technicians.
#29
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#31
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http://www.dw.de/labor-bottleneck-squeezes-german-solar-sector/a-6257452

Metzner doesn't sympathize much with industry's fears of spies. He argues that excessive secrecy has little value in any globalized industry. Knowledge is bound to leak, even by legal means, he says.
"It is inevitable in the globalized economic space when you sell machines and facilities, because manufacturers have to guarantee that their products function properly," he told Deutsche Welle. "And so industry can't avoid that know-how will be passed on.
It appears that even as the fields of photovoltaic, and renewable energy in general, grow in leaps and bounds, they may increasingly find themselves limited in their options and struggling to operate within Germany as qualified employees become more difficult to find.
Immigration policies, protectionist attitudes and an unwillingness to accept foreign workers may well be hampering their efforts, and at the rate the industry is growing, it seems that a limited workforce will stunt the industry's potential sooner rather than later.
#32
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Lucille posted:


"libertarians are much better than leftists because they actually respond rather than-" *gets banned*

thanks obama

#33
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#34
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SHOOT 4 THE MOON

EVEN IF U FAIL

U FAIL AMONG THE STARS
#35
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#36
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Let me go make some.

In the meantime heres a graph of what the future will be like

#37
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Roseweird you should be all about peak oil. For one thing you're a Jew for the other its a good reason to exterminate minorities (men are a minority).
#38
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There are fissile resources besides U, there's plutonium and thorium which are counted in the paper I got the numbers from. Living standards are ultimately a function of population not technology.
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#40
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If I was a Jew I would hate to watch Arrested Development and how they treat George and all that. It would further my alienation from mainstream society, I would probably want to kill all men and all male women after that.