jools posted:Goethestein posted:jools posted:Goethestein posted:i had my watch set for that answer. empires, city-states or nation-states, the behavior is the same. you should be happy, honestly. as a nation totally above 45 degrees north, the UK will almost certainly benefit on the whole from global warming. better climate, better farming, maybe some dikes to build on the coastal cities but jolly good old spice
amoeba, gorillas, sphagnum moss. the behaviour is the same
pull back the camera far enough back and yes. your problem is in getting bogged down in minutae, not a "big picture" thinker, unfortunate
there is nothing but minutiae though.
wow. having to memorize a lot of kings really did a number on your brain huh
Goethestein posted:people focus on temperature rise because it's objectively measurable and sea level rise because it's somewhat mathematically predictable, but nobody serious puts any real weight in climactic predictions. they can't predict the weather five days in advance but let me tell you with a straight face about what the jet stream over scotland is going to look like in 2089
weather != climate
i can predict where a ball i throw is going to go but i cant predict where any of its individual atoms will be or even where they are before i throw it
Goethestein posted:climate isn't newtonian physics
actually it is
Goethestein posted:The NCMEC estimated in 2003 that 20% of all pornography traded over the Internet was child pornography
lmao yeah right
Goethestein posted:like dont get me wrong, i'm sure there is a lot of child pornography on the internet. i am also sure that there are a lot of jellyfish in the ocean but i don't think that they constitute 20% of its volume
i'm sure there is a lot of x, but it cannot be that much of the volume of y considering the vastness of the volume of y
roseweird posted:what happened here
Now I’m going to show you, recently released, the actual ocean temperature. Of course when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms. We have seen in the last couple of years, a lot of big hurricanes. Hurricanes Jean, Francis and Ivan were among them. In the same year we had that string of big hurricanes; we also set an all time record for tornadoes in the United States… And then of course came Katrina. It is worth remembering that when it hit Florida it was a Category 1, but it killed a lot of people and caused billions of dollars worth of damage. And then, what happened? Before it hit New Orleans, it went over warmer water. As the water temperature increases, the wind velocity increases and the moisture content increases. And you’ll see Hurricane Katrina form over Florida. And then as it comes into the Gulf over warm water it becomes stronger and stronger and stronger. Look at that Hurricane’s eye. And of course the consequences were so horrendous; there are no words to describe it.
the actual inconvenient truth
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/05/08/sorry-global-warmists-but-extreme-weather-events-are-becoming-less-extreme
Hurricane inactivity is also setting all-time records. The United States is undergoing its longest stretch in recorded history without a major hurricane strike, with each passing day extending the unprecedented lack of severe hurricanes, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.It has been more than 2,750 days since a major hurricane struck the United States. This easily smashes the prior record of less than 2,300 days between major hurricane strikes.
Goethestein posted:people focus on temperature rise because it's objectively measurable and sea level rise because it's somewhat mathematically predictable, but nobody serious puts any real weight in climactic predictions. they can't predict the weather five days in advance but let me tell you with a straight face about what the jet stream over scotland is going to look like in 2089
Goat is actually kinda right about this, see above.
wasted posted:'here will be-u no new cawrbon tax
Abbot gave his budget reply speech last night, said the very first thing he’s going to do upon taking government in September is repealing the carbon tax
Goethestein posted:global warmists lol
It’s cool how they scramble to come up with excuses as to why their models didn’t work: ‘um, the heat’s gone to the OCEAN you Neanderthal DENIER!’
Uh ok so if you didn’t account for that before we should believe your models now because?.....*crickets*
Goethestein posted:global warming is definitely happening but i am skeptical about attempts to predict its effects with any degree of certainty especially when the most robust models predict at worst a perfectly survivable annoyance and there are thousands of lefties tearing at their clothes and begging to be judged at the bottom of an incan pyramid
Exactly yeah: you’d be a fool not to acknowledge that the CO2 is doing something but i just hate the religious aspects of the global warming beliebers and their increasingly histrionic and unfounded rhetoric, and also how here at least it seems to be the defining issue of the Left.
roseweird posted:apocalyptic leftist environmentalists briefly got a glimpse of a vengeful god in gaia, which is unusual for them
It’s not unusual, that’s the whole attraction of climate change alarmism, it’s the bible/torah for people whose social location frowns on expression of traditional religious belief.
Ironicwarcriminal posted:It’s funny to me that the same people who laugh at dawkin’s hubris and reason-fetish will start lashing out if you suggest that scientists aren’t all-seeing, future-divining Ubershamans
Except anyone who actually understands issues related to climate change knows that the scientists don't know shit, which is exactly why they're scared. They can create plausible doomsday scenarios and when asked if they're serious they just have to throw up their hands and shrug.
Climate is supremely predictable, it's cold in winter and warm in summer and oscillates between ice ages and interglacial periods due to changes in the earth's axial tilt, orbital eccentricity, and axial precession. A full Milankovitch cycle takes approximately 26,000 years and is tightly correlated with observed changes in surface temperature. All of those patterns have gone out the window, and while nobody's sure exactly how things are going to look in the future we're damn sure they aren't going to be very much like they are now.
Like I don't know why you guys are so determined only to look 100 years in the future. even conservative estimates of CO2 emissions will have us at CO2 levels that haven't been seen since the PETM, when crocodiles swam in the Arctic Ocean and apes clambered through the jungles of Alaska. How long it would take the climate to reach those temperatures again or how quickly it could dispose of the excess carbon isn't known by anybody, which is why everyone is so worried
In Russia, one of the world's leading solar physicists, Habibullo Abdussamatov, says the planet is well on the way to another deep freeze. Abdussamatov is the head of space research at the Russian Academy of Sciences Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in St Petersburg, and director of the Russian segment of the International Space Station.
In an interview with Principia Scientific International, Abdussamatov said results of research from the ISS had indicated a decline in total solar irradiance, which was having a dramatic effect on the global climate.
Data indicated the onset of a mini ice age.
The view from Russia is that solar activity, not carbon dioxide emissions, has driven global temperatures. Abdussamatov said global warming during the last decades of the 20th century was due to de-gassing of large amounts of carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere from oceans, triggered by the increased solar irradiance. He said the lack of any warming for the past 17 years was a result of the decline of the total solar irradiance.
Abdussamatov said there had been five deep cold periods in the past 1000 years - in 1030, 1315, 1500, 1680 and 1805.
He said another cool period was due and would come about regardless of whether industrialised countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas emissions.
"Mars has global warming - but without a greenhouse and without the participation of Martians," Abdussamatov said.
"These parallel global warmings - observed simultaneously on Mars and on the Earth - can only be a consequence of the effect of the same factor: a long-time change in solar irradiance."
Abdussamatov said a new "little ice age" would start this or next year and hit a low around 2040, with a deep freeze that would last for the rest of the century.
The Russian research corresponds with the announcement by US solar physicists last year that the sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity.
Squalid posted:hey come on man it's not like you're the only one who knows the advantages of arguing in bad faith. It's kind of your specialty, so why are you so surprised that others use the same techniques?
Because I’m an idiot troll on an obscure internet forum while scientists are being paid millions to pretend they know what they’re talking about?
Because I’m an idiot troll on an obscure internet forum while scientists are being paid millions to pretend they know what they’re talking about?
Climate scientists are no different to All the KBR and Halliburton dudes profiting from war
Ironicwarcriminal posted:no 'everybody is so worried' because fear sells and the scientists know that and want funding
All interest groups/classes generally utilize the most efficient means of accomplishing their goals. Doing anything in this world requires money, and changing global systems of energy generation theoretically could be accomplished through changes in opinion (lol). As you are well aware, the Rational Man is an ugly little indecent by-product of our so called civilization, whose only saving grace is his utter subordination and subservience the the Feeling Man, our hearts and soul, who don't rely on modern notions of reason to act or live. How can you of all people blame anyone for recognizing the true nature of our own characters?
In any case, if I thought the Iraq war was just I wouldn't find much offensive about making money contributing to the effort, provided the contribution was worthwhile. I think the fight against global warming is just, so if someone can make a career out of it more power to them. Second, scientists operate on very tiny and generally efficient budgets, and generally have very limited capacity or desire to participate in political debates.
The actual organizations responsible for environmental fear-mongering and half-truths are politicians and non-profit NGOs whose funding is dependent on being highly visible and scaring people into giving them money. Notably many of these organizations have actually side-lined carbon emission reduction efforts in favor of anti-nuclear activism, and unlike scientists their efforts are often driven less by empirical evidence as philosophical concepts.