#1
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2018/08/11/turkey-total-meltdown/

Turkey's lira collapsed this week, a potential weak link snaps as the Turkish lira collapsed due to serious economic pressure i.e. the high foreign debt-to-GDP ratio, etc etc

https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-erdogan-slams-u-s-over-tariff-move-1534011013

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2018/08/03/a-new-global-credit-crunch-to-come/

https://jackrasmus.com/2018/07/31/will-trumps-trade-war-precipiate-a-currency-war-print/

Is the Long Recession coming to a head?? Will the Trump trade wars precipitate a crisis in the capitalist mode of production?? Only the rhizzone can decide...stay tuned
#2
Can't wait to finish my degree and graduate into a global recession.
#3
From the second Michael Roberts piece:

The financial sector was bailed out by huge injections of credit and cash and the capitalist sector was supported by zero or even negative interest rate policy by the central banks and unprecedented levels of money ‘printing’, called quantitative easing. The result was not much of an expansion in investment or production. In the major capitalist economies, economic growth (real GDP growth) has averaged no more than 2% a year (slightly more in the US and less elsewhere). In the so-called emerging economies, average growth rates also fell back. But above all, debt in all sectors rose. The result was inflated financial asset prices without the kind of “recovery” seen in previous ‘business cycles’.


Feeling frustrated that the “secular stagnation” thesis has been developed most enthusiastically by bourgeois economists like Larry Summers on the one hand, and the Monthly Review-ists on the other, who add in some of their kind of weird and unconvincing Sweezian ideas about “tendency of the surplus to rise” or whatever. If anyone smarter than me has thoughts to contribute on secular stagnation that would be cool.

#4
Andrew Kliman on secular stagnation:http://www.newleftproject.org/index.php/site/article_comments/clarifying_secular_stagnation_and_the_great_recession

#5
speaking of crisis, i don't often agree with anything cbc (canadian public news) writes, but this was under an image of Mohammed bin Salman:

"The assumption behind this diplomatic tussle seems to be that the liberal world order has already caved in, and authoritarian governments now have untrammelled freedom to crush dissent at home and browbeat opponents abroad."

sounds a lot more accurate than the writer probably intended
#6
back to on topic. Turkey and Russia have a lot more reason to get closer now that Trump is giving them the business

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Aug. 11 Turkey was preparing to conduct trade through national currencies with China, Russia and Ukraine.

Asked about Erdoğan's proposal [today, Monday], Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia had been pushing for such an arrangement with all countries. He said the issue had been raised on more than one occasion during bilateral talks between Turkey and Russia.



http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russia-backs-use-of-national-currencies-for-bilateral-trade-after-erdogans-call-135742 (this is almost the full text though)

#7

Caesura109 posted:

Can't wait to finish my degree and graduate into a global recession.



hey it worked for me with the last one

turns out being unemployed for a year or two gives you a lot of time to read marx

#8
https://www.businessinsider.com/what-if-turkey-collapses-from-lira-crisis-iran-russia-syria-are-waiting-2018-8

I found this article, here are some quotes that I edited:

Turkey is the bridge buffer/vassal between the democratic, peaceful West imperial core and the war-ridden dictatorships oppressed nations of the East.



Turkey is the thing that has physically prevented (created! lmao) the Islamic State terrorist group from rolling into Greece. It keeps the Syrian war inside helps export imperialism to Syria. It prevents the Russians from rolling back into Bulgaria. And it deters the Iraqis, Iranians, and Kurds from escalating their various conflicts immigrating northward into Europe.



I like how they think Kurdish and Iraqi conflicts would somehow roll into Greece. This article also probably belongs in that thread about western media sucking.

#9
that article also got the european exposure part wrong, the danger we bring for european trash is not related to exports or trade or whatever, the real problem is that half of the debt of our private sector is borrowed from european banks so if we fail to pay there might be a few small problems to the tune of like 120 bn dollars. dont know how those numbers look, especially in comparison with the greek debt drama.
#10
am reading super-imperialism, the part where the great depression began in the periphery over a year before US black tuesday. also partly caused by unpayable intergovernmental debt claims. gonna be a weird crash if the world calls the US bluff & gets off the US treasury standard/dollar peg
#11
so superimperialism is interesting but if i remember rightly the criticism is that he gives no independent agency to non-amerikan imperialism or something, relegating them to taking orders from washington. i think its a valid criticism which should not detract from the enjoyment of the book, but in hindsight i think there are obvious areas where this led hudson somewhat astray in his analysis. i dont have my copy so i cant really expand on this, but its worth reading it critically
#12
edit- i see what you mean and i think his biggest sin is reasoning from history's final judgment... the U$ snapped up the remains of britain's empire so he reasons from that fact, and on backwards. etc. i think it so far does what it set out to do, which is write a history of the balance of payments, but not what he'd like, which is to tell world history thru the balance of payments (?)

Edited by toyotathon ()

#13
Roberts floated the possibility of Turkey finding someone to bail them out, but noted Turkey's bad relations with regional powers. I'm wondering if Qatar is capable of doing so. They have the right relations and they may be desperate enough not to see Erdogan go, and be left without a friend in the new Middle East, but I have no clue if they could even if they wanted to.
#14
the amir of qatar promised 15bn of investments but i think the real source of help is going to be germany. we have been apparently "secretly" begging them for help thru back channels, especially to get trump back to negotiating. a couple of greek soldiers we had arrested some time ago got released yesterday or some shit, heard that it was some move to appease the germans.
#15
i think what we have to understand here is that the dollar, far from collapsing in a fit of wishful thinking about a sudden shift by e.g. brics countries away from its use as the international reserve currency aka the dollar hegemony, is actually strengthening at the moment. Wishful thinking about "dumping the dollar" tends to focus on russia/china/iran conducting e.g. oil trades in non-dollar currencies or straight up commodity exchange with no currency involved. This is undoubtable a trend, but a very slow one - and quite rightly too, going against dollar hegemony is putting yourself in the line of fire of the entire weight of US economic and military might (see libya, venezuela)

the collapse of the turkish lira, and the wobbles of other currencies like the rand and rupee are signs of US economic strength and we need to see this for what it is. this relates to imo 1) overall factor of the economic boom phase we are currently in, which the USA is riding highest, and 2) the US bringing full force economic might to bear against its competators through trumps sanctions 3) the predictable natural flight to the dollar in the face of any sort of crisis because of its weight which boosts the dollar in times of crisis, which is great for the US

we are of course really teetering on the edge of an impending capitalist crisis - on this note i really dislike the theory of the long recession/depression as misused because imo roberts was at his best when he discusses the very slow recovery from the 2008 crisis i.e. the very week growth this current buisness cycle saw at its beginning (the "recovery"), but now growth is good, "teh economy" is booming (if you're a capitalist that is), unemployment is right down, returns are high etc etc - capitalism is riding high and is most definatly no longer in any sort of depression/recession, long or otherwise, except for the general impact of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall tending to make each successive cycle more problematic than the last

so when roberts says shit like

The story of the last ten years since the Great Recession is that the world capitalist economy has staggered on at low levels of growth and investment and with virtually no improvement in real incomes for the 90%


its like duh, thats every capitalist cycle, and roberts seems to be pining for the era of whitey chugging down superprofits - like when was this mythical time when capitalism ever improved "real incomes for the 90%" when it wasnt a tiny imperilist 90% and paid for in blood? - its like he looks at the current cycle and goes where da fucky is the boost in spending for the national health service like before and why are there so many potholes, this didnt happen last time, and then attends a eurocommunist economics conference in london where he moans some more

so here we are in the good times teetering on the edge of crisis and this current economic warfare being pursued by the US against traditional allies and enemies alike does have the strong potential to tip the whole world capitalist system into contraction (which was coming anyway) (see current interest rate policies for signs that the us central bank is acting to contract money supply). sam williams makes the point that capitalist crises often first manifest visibly in the sphere of currency before expanding to other spheres like credit, so get hyped, this might be it

economy prognosis: rekt

#16
radhika desai was talking about triffin dilemma and how a strong dollar isnt actually that much of a good thing for yanks coz it disrupts global trade but i dont know much about econ shit
#17
weekly frontpage series "tears explains how it is for real to u"
#18
im just trying to learn
#19
not mocking, i think you have a pretty good analysis and have been enjoying your recent finance posts
#20
all i ever wanted was to know everything
#21

tears posted:

im just trying to learn



speaking of, where is a good place to learn more about finance? I tried reading Tony Norfield's book but found it hard to understand.

#22
i had a bunch of shit written here but basically i think it comes down to: i think the superficial health of the economy according to The Numbers is a figment of what the numbers abstract away: increased financialization that is unsustainable, "gig economy" bullshit moving numbers around, and especially lowered corporate tax (both officially and unofficially through loopholes etc. chart)

also because monetary policy control has been delegated to private banks, i don't really believe pre-2008 ways of thinking of the economy are entirely valid though i'm not sure exactly what to replace them with other than to post in Drink Yourself to Death
#23
#24

dimashq posted:

tears posted:

im just trying to learn

speaking of, where is a good place to learn more about finance? I tried reading Tony Norfield's book but found it hard to understand.



hello, mean tears was just going to write "try divination", but ive banished her for a while so i can reply, im sure she''ll be back soon enough though

as u have probably grasped as you attempted to tackle norfields book, understanding finance is hard, so i hope u dont take this as me being rude but if u found norfield difficult then theres probably not much i could recommend at similar level that would help you understand about finance without going all the way back to basics - if you just want to have a vague understanding you could try his blog, he has some good stuff there. considering how few people know anything about capitalist finance i am pretty sure its not a requirement to understanding communism

but wats that i hear u say, u actually want to learn it all, every little bit of everything, just like i do? well why did u not say so at the beginning, heres one of many possible walkthroughs starting at the very beginning:

first off u need an understanding of basic marxist economics, i assume you already have this but the first thing is to work out what money is, so go ahead and read the first three chapters of capital #1. this is the most important bit and youre gonna re-read these chapters over and over; never forget them, no matter how many layers of financial derivatives youre on.

next u need some sort of guide to the rest of basic marxist economics because only an asshole would recommend reading capital at this point; id recommend leontiev (political economy a beginners course) even with its glaring deficiencies because its basically an old soviet text book from 1944, and everyones got to start somewhere, chapter 9 now represents everything i hate about people who think they understand imperialism but since you're posting here ill assume that wont be an issue because you already understand what imperialism actually is and youre super angry about that just like me!

in case u need a refresher please read this thread, or just read it anyway (applies to everyone): https://rhizzone.net/forum/topic/14062/

if u havent read them already the obvious books to read at this point are cOpes Divided world divided class and smiths imperialism in the 21st Century, and lenin on imperialism obviously, i would supplement it with the collection of quotations in Marx & Engels on colonies industrial monopoly & the working class movement (kersplebedeb, 2016) as a bare minimum thats your foundational understanding of what imperialism is and how it works, if you were not angry before i bet u are now!

the reason u need this is that i dont think there is any point to trying to understand the most complicated aspects of capitalism without understanding the fundamentals and this does not in any way mean having "read capital" or whatever some smug communist might boast to you, it means understanding super-exploitation at the world scale, which is super easy really - the most important thing is an open mind. but predictably it turns out most “marxist economists” dont even understand this one wierd trick to understanding capitalism

ok good, you understand the basics of imperialism in the year 2018, maybe dip back into marx, obviously read chapters 26 to 33 to understand the genesis of capitalism, but supplement this understanding with federici's caliban and the witch, witch is an essential companion piece, some gerald horne, eric williams capitalism and slavery and rodney's how europe underdeveloped africa, also if u havent read settlers um, do that but dont tell anyone you hadnt read it; oh and read Patriarchy and Accumulation On A World Scale: Women in the International Division of Labour by maria mies and some butch lee if you havent already, and mao, that guys pretty cool

all of this is because imo theres no way you can really understand finance without understanding the facets of the military-political history of imperialism, which is where the need to understand super-exploitation comes in, because if someone doesn’t understand why the cia created isis then how are they ever gonna understand what inflation is?

ok so now youre ready, ready to try and understand finance - by this point Tony Norfields "The City" will probably be easy, thats what i would recommend at this point anyway - now you can branch out into other stuff if you want. toyotathon was readying hudsons superimperialism which i like but see my warning above, you could also delve into something like baran and ssweezys monopoly capital though there are also caveats here, and if you want something like Amins work on unequal exchange, but since youve read cope and smith you've basically shortcutted to a reasonably good understanding (of unequal exchange) so you are backfilling with older work at this point. read monthly review, with the same caveats that apply to barran ands sweey themselves

norfields the city is pretty lightweight imo so one book i fucking love is nabuderes crash of international finance capital; essential reading imo but it is difficult going and its basically an abridgement of a larger work so,

i should say at this point you will of course be supplementing all of this with the financial news which you will now be addicted to. so where can u get good financial news? nowhere lol. but since capitalism does need to be very accurate in lots of things to do with finance certain data especially to do with price is plentiful so all your bond prices and market capitalisation and exchange rate data is at the tip of your finger, on line. other data is very difficult to come by, especially detailed company finances

for lack of any noticeable variation in msm financial sources i tend to browse bloomberg (lol) and yahoo finance (lol) plus zerohedge (:yikes:)and naked capitalism (...its bad but whatever), the same caveats to any amerikkkan news source do apply but often much more; "investopedia" will translate whatever bs capitalist finance terms u dont understand into slightly more understandable bs

now its time to tackle capital volume 3, which i am currently grinding through right now and it is excellent. Part IV, V, and VII are essential, VI is good, and youve probably already read part III by this point anyway cos u wanted to know what marx said about teh tendency of the RoP to fall. I havent read parts I and II but am looking forward to deepening my understanding of the equalisation of the general rate of profit, something i only really understand from leontiev

obviously i would also recommend reading the entire backlog of sam williams blog which is a great thing and i am afraid it will disapear one day. now you're on your own, just immerse yourself in whatever it is you want to learn about; and never forget what you read in chapters 1-3 of capital volume 1 way back when

and im sorry if that wasnt the answer you were looking for but this is exactly what id tell my younger self as she floundered about trying to understand wtf finance is, that and "try divination", obviously

Edited by drwhat ()

#25

tears posted:

dimashq posted:

tears posted:

im just trying to learn

speaking of, where is a good place to learn more about finance? I tried reading Tony Norfield's book but found it hard to understand.



thx tears, saved/favorited ur post. I actually would say the City only went over my head like half the time but I put it down and knew i would probably get more out of it in 6 months or a year or whatever. I usually have to read books several times and its rewarding to go back and realizze you were an idiot the last time you read it and literally the equivalent of slime in a jar the first time.

#26

tears posted:

dimashq posted:
tears posted:
im just trying to learn

speaking of, where is a good place to learn more about finance? I tried reading Tony Norfield's book but found it hard to understand.



hello, mean tears was just going to write "try divination", but ive banished her for a while so i can reply, im sure she''ll be back soon enough though

as u have probably grasped as you attempted to tackle norfields book, understanding finance is hard, so i hope u dont take this as me being rude but if u found norfield difficult then theres probably not much i could recommend at similar level that would help you understand about finance without going all the way back to basics - if you just want to have a vague understanding you could try his blog, he has some good stuff there. considering how few people know anything about capitalist finance i am pretty sure its not a requirement to understanding communism

but wats that i hear u say, u actually want to learn it all, every little bit of everything, just like i do? well why did u not say so at the beginning, heres one of many possible walkthroughs starting at the very beginning:

first off u need an understanding of basic marxist economics, i assume you already have this but the first thing is to work out what money is, so go ahead and read the first three chapters of capital #1. this is the most important bit and youre gonna re-read these chapters over and over; never forget them, no matter how many layers of financial derivatives youre on.

next u need some sort of guide to the rest of basic marxist economics because only an asshole would recommend reading capital at this point; id recommend leontiev (political economy a beginners course) even with its glaring deficiencies because its basically an old soviet text book from 1944, and everyones got to start somewhere, chapter 9 now represents everything i hate about people who think they understand imperialism but since you're posting here ill assume that wont be an issue because you already understand what imperialism actually is and youre super angry about that just like me!

in case u need a refresher please read this thread, or just read it anyway (applies to everyone): https://rhizzone.net/forum/topic/14062/

if u havent read them already the obvious books to read at this point are cOpes Divided world divided class and smiths imperialism in the 21st Century, and lenin on imperialism obviously, i would supplement it with the collection of quotations in Marx & Engels on colonies industrial monopoly & the working class movement (kersplebedeb, 2016) as a bare minimum thats your foundational understanding of what imperialism is and how it works, if you were not angry before i bet u are now!

the reason u need this is that i dont think there is any point to trying to understand the most complicated aspects of capitalism without understanding the fundamentals and this does not in any way mean having "read capital" or whatever some smug communist might boast to you, it means understanding super-exploitation at the world scale, which is super easy really - the most important thing is an open mind. but predictably it turns out most “marxist economists” dont even understand this one wierd trick to understanding capitalism

ok good, you understand the basics of imperialism in the year 2018, maybe dip back into marx, obviously read chapters 26 to 33 to understand the genesis of capitalism, but supplement this understanding with federici's caliban and the witch, witch is an essential companion piece, some gerald horne, eric williams capitalism and slavery and rodney's how europe underdeveloped africa, also if u havent read settlers um, do that but dont tell anyone you hadnt read it; oh and read Patriarchy and Accumulation On A World Scale: Women in the International Division of Labour by maria mies and some butch lee if you havent already, and mao, that guys pretty cool

all of this is because imo theres no way you can really understand finance without understanding the facets of the military-political history of imperialism, which is where the need to understand super-exploitation comes in, because if someone doesn’t understand why the cia created isis then how are they ever gonna understand what inflation is?

ok so now youre ready, ready to try and understand finance - by this point Tony Norfields "The City" will probably be easy, thats what i would recommend at this point anyway - now you can branch out into other stuff if you want. toyotathon was readying hudsons superimperialism which i like but see my warning above, you could also delve into something like baran and ssweezys monopoly capital though there are also caveats here, and if you want something like Amins work on unequal exchange, but since youve read cope and smith you've basically shortcutted to a reasonably good understanding (of unequal exchange) so you are backfilling with older work at this point. read monthly review, with the same caveats that apply to barran ands sweey themselves

norfields the city is pretty lightweight imo so one book i fucking love is nabuderes crash of international finance capital; essential reading imo but it is difficult going and its basically an abridgement of a larger work so,

i should say at this point you will of course be supplementing all of this with the financial news which you will now be addicted to. so where can u get good financial news? nowhere lol. but since capitalism does need to be very accurate in lots of things to do with finance certain data especially to do with price is plentiful so all your bond prices and market capitalisation and exchange rate data is at the tip of your finger, on line. other data is very difficult to come by, especially detailed company finances

for lack of any noticeable variation in msm financial sources i tend to browse bloomberg (lol) and yahoo finance (lol) plus zerohedge (:yikes:)and naked capitalism (...its bad but whatever), the same caveats to any amerikkkan news source do apply but often much more; "investopedia" will translate whatever bs capitalist finance terms u dont understand into slightly more understandable bs

now its time to tackle capital volume 3, which i am currently grinding through right now and it is excellent. Part IV, V, and VII are essential, VI is good, and youve probably already read part III by this point anyway cos u wanted to know what marx said about teh tendency of the RoP to fall. I havent read parts I and II but am looking forward to deepening my understanding of the equalisation of the general rate of profit, something i only really understand from leontiev

obviously i would also recommend reading the entire backlog of sam williams blog which is a great thing and i am afraid it will disapear one day. now you're on your own, just immerse yourself in whatever it is you want to learn about; and never forget what you read in chapters 1-3 of capital volume 1 way back when

and im sorry if that wasnt the answer you were looking for but this is exactly what id tell my younger self as she floundered about trying to understand wtf finance is, that and "try divination", obviously

Edited by tears (today 11:38:03)









whoever has the keys to the rhizzone.txt account tweet this out 280 characters at a time.

#27
Can we frontpage that tears post plz?
#28
#29
i'm curious as to how turkish communists are responding to this, does anyone know anything about that?
#30
Speaking of the bourgeoisie having to know things, this is an excellent resource

https://gvcc.duke.edu/overview-of-work/

Which had reports on basically everything. For my own work I read these

https://gvcc.duke.edu/cggcproject/korea-institute-for-industrial-economics-trade-kiet/

Which are invaluable. Reading Smith is a must beforehand so you learn what the terms actually mean and how to read beyond bourgeois propaganda. But we can't expect Smith and Cope to write a new book every year nor for them to delve into particular countries and regions. We'll have to rely on the bourgeoisie for that.
#31
Also a secret bonus of Norfield's book is the first two chapters are a history of post-war british imperialism. As far as I'm aware, he's the only one who has provided a causal explanation for Brexit that doesn't ultimately boil down to "bad men made a bad decision."
#32

lo posted:

i'm curious as to how turkish communists are responding to this, does anyone know anything about that?



well it s mostly telling the turkish people that the issue is not just a result of the current spat between yanks and turkish government, it s more about capitalism and its current form in turkey blah blah blah, something everyone here is already aware of. but there is another concern here, which is that there is a strange drive both among the ruling party and also the opposition (especially chp and the exmaoist microsect that people both mock for being completely insignificant and also for being the real mastermind representing the deep state) to drum up support behind the government by claiming that "we are all in this together". people supporting the opposition parties are quite disgusted by this display but these people get disappointed by their parties almost every day and then go back to supporting it in a few seconds as they are petit bourgeois trash so it s pretty much pointless. other than that they have been focusing on strikes as always, which is a more sound decision. living and working conditions have been in steep decline for some time already which is the issue they are focusing on and this currency drama is only making this problem more acute, so the currency stuff is not that interesting or important on its own when it comes to political action or strategy or whatever.