#201
[account deactivated]
#202
Post rating: ~
i should note that i was doing some extremely back-of-the-envelope calculations and that i know nothing about either trucking nor battery technology.

but yeah this all seems like pure scam/pipedream
#203
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oh there's a recent bloomberg article, mostly about lyft, that speculates the new Uber CEO may discontinue their public release of their quarterly revenue/losses

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-11/lyft-set-to-claim-third-of-u-s-market-in-2017-document-shows

Uber hasn’t publicly disclosed its third-quarter financial information and it’s not clear whether Khosrowshahi will continue the practice of releasing them publicly. Lyft, also a closely held company, has never publicly released its financials.



i enjoyed keeping up with it every 3 months so i hope that's not true.

#204
Post rating: +

Chthonic_Goat_666 posted:

i should note that i was doing some extremely back-of-the-envelope calculations and that i know nothing about either trucking nor battery technology.

but yeah this all seems like pure scam/pipedream


elon musk being just a total scam artist/pt barnum figure is much cooler imo than the dominant view of him as some kind of techno visionary

#205
Post rating: +
Ya'll aren't considering just how much of a wet dream low maintenance electrics trucks would be for logistics company. Diesels are a nightmare. oil, coolant, filters, exhaust fluid, emissions controls, transmission oil. A billion rubbing mechanical components. Even the electronics are comparable to electric vehicles, with modern diesels having sensors and controls to monitor every single function.


https://www.km.kongsberg.com/ks/web/nokbg0240.nsf/AllWeb/4B8113B707A50A4FC125811D00407045?OpenDocument
2018 will be the debut of the first autonomous electric cargo vessel. Seafaring costs are all tied up in labor in fuel. And now you've cut both out. It's free money.



http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Road_freight_transport_by_journey_characteristics

Look at that shit. Average EU road freight is 80 miles. There's like a bazillion back and forth routes that would make an electric truck perfect. Even if Tesla is a scam right now. Even if the economics don't work now. Even if the science doesn't work. They will eventually. And the companies that don't invest in the first stream of electric trucks and infrastructure will be wiped out.


You can't compare Tesla to the rest of silicon valley. They have technology, assets, tangible products, and a million fucklords ready to fellate the man. It's some weird ass thinking if you don't think a hyper-capitalist like Musk won't succeed. Even if he doesn't and the whole thing implodes, there'll be someone else to pick up the pieces. Electric motors have huge commercial advantages. Rolls Royce is pushing autonomous and electric commercials vessels hard right now. The shit is a dream come true for operators and owners. It's going to happen.
#206
Post rating: +
i dont doubt that electric vehicles could become ascendant some day. i just dont think its gonna be tesla. other car companies are looking into this stuff too and they're probably better positioned to actually make it work, i dont think tesla is doing anything special aside from having great PR.

and that tesla has actual assets is part of why they're interesting to me, i wanna see how it all gets picked apart
#207
Dont Mess With Sucess
Post rating: ~

hey posted:

Ya'll aren't considering just how much of a wet dream low maintenance electrics trucks would be for logistics company. Diesels are a nightmare. oil, coolant, filters, exhaust fluid, emissions controls, transmission oil. A billion rubbing mechanical components. Even the electronics are comparable to electric vehicles, with modern diesels having sensors and controls to monitor every single function.


https://www.km.kongsberg.com/ks/web/nokbg0240.nsf/AllWeb/4B8113B707A50A4FC125811D00407045?OpenDocument
2018 will be the debut of the first autonomous electric cargo vessel. Seafaring costs are all tied up in labor in fuel. And now you've cut both out. It's free money.



http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Road_freight_transport_by_journey_characteristics

Look at that shit. Average EU road freight is 80 miles. There's like a bazillion back and forth routes that would make an electric truck perfect. Even if Tesla is a scam right now. Even if the economics don't work now. Even if the science doesn't work. They will eventually. And the companies that don't invest in the first stream of electric trucks and infrastructure will be wiped out.


You can't compare Tesla to the rest of silicon valley. They have technology, assets, tangible products, and a million fucklords ready to fellate the man. It's some weird ass thinking if you don't think a hyper-capitalist like Musk won't succeed. Even if he doesn't and the whole thing implodes, there'll be someone else to pick up the pieces. Electric motors have huge commercial advantages. Rolls Royce is pushing autonomous and electric commercials vessels hard right now. The shit is a dream come true for operators and owners. It's going to happen.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/07/cobalt-production-as-the-hidden-choke-point-on-mass-conversion-to-electric-vehicles.html

Cobalt isn't the only part of this you're missing. The difference between electric and mechanical power is conversion loss. The externalities from fabricating, powering and maintaining electric cars and their infrastructure are necessarily larger by an order of magnitude than the current infrastructure based on oil extraction. I don't think Musk's trajectory within the capitalist power structure or the brilliance of his engineers matters at all.

Edited by swampman ()

#208
Post rating: ~
Well the good news is that we'll soon be paying taxes to these tech companies, and letting them run the city budget

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/this-city-hall-brought-to-you-by-amazon/
#209
UNUSUALY COOL
Post rating: ~
i don't think what's raised here is a claim that electric won't be a big part of the likely future of logistics, it's that Tesla in particular seems to be basing its plans on subsidized fairy dust atm... Kind of the point that someone else will have to "pick up the pieces"

As to whether big bets by a celebrity capitalist mean profits are guaranteed ahead vs. mere churning of capital, I mean... really?? Musk of all people can afford to win by losing, unless you believe his tall tales about self-imposed impoverishment when he invests, in which case, I have a weather control program from Ukraine that might interest you
#210
Post rating: ~
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/11/chinas-bike-share-startup-frenzy-turns-money-suck.html

But Minkbike’s collapse was just the latest. Earlier this month, Bluegogo, the third largest bike-share outfit, collapsed. It had claimed 20 million registered users at its peak and operated 600,000 bikes. It has raised $90 million from VCs, including aptly named Black Hole Capital, based in Beijing, which led the last funding round, $58 million, in February this year. It only took eight months to burn through this money.



lol

#211
Post rating: ~
über more like üssr

https://www.rbth.com/science-and-tech/326650-soviet-automobile-projects-that-died
#212
Post rating: ~

Chthonic_Goat_666 posted:


did you see this?

http://www.businessinsider.com/softbank-offer-uber-stock-48-billion-valuations-2017-11

#213
Post rating: ~
i didn't see that particular snippet but that seems roughly in line with what's been said before. that kind of deal has been speculated about for months at this point (WSJ carried almost the exact same details in a mid-september article, for example), so it's a bit "i'll believe it when I see it" now. some early investors really want out afaik (e.g. Benchmark(?) and probably a lot of employees with stocks), im not sure what's taking so long. i wish these processes were a bit more transparent so i could understand whats going on.

Edited by Chthonic_Goat_666 ()

#214
Post rating: ~
i just mean the haircuts funny. i bet theyll bait and switch again and end up at a bigger haircut than 30% when alls said and done, they really have all the bargaining power there
#215
Post rating: ~
even if it's much lower im sure many of the early investors will be happy to get out at that price. not sure what softbank's game is aside from hoping a future IPO takes the price higher again temporarily.
#216
Post rating: ~
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/11/teslas-semi-truck-perspectives-cab-and-the-truck-stop-dock.html

some potential problems of the design of the tesla semi

the article nakedcapitalism links is interesting too:

https://www.autoblog.com/2017/11/19/tesla-semi-trucker-questions/

Edited by Chthonic_Goat_666 ()

#217
Post rating: ~
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/27/technology/softbank-uber-shares.html

NYTimes article on the softbank deal apparently going ahead.
#218
Post rating: ~
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/time-for-repairs-have-made-tesla-a-laughing-stock-in-my-family.103011/
#219
Post rating: +
uber loss of 743 million in Q3 2017

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/r-ubers-third-quarter-adj-loss-widens-to-743-mln---ft-2017-11-1009867861

lol. about 5.9 billion to go now i think.

Edited by Chthonic_Goat_666 ()

#220
Post rating: ~
what the fuck is the difference between "adjusted loss" (743 million) and "net loss" (1.46 billion as cited elsewhere in media) ? need some rhizzone accountants...
#221
Post rating: ~
adjusted loss is when they "adjust" their loss to make it look less than it actually is
#222
Post rating: ~

tears posted:

adjusted loss is when they "adjust" their loss to make it look less than it actually is





some info on the upcoming (delayed) trial between waymo (google) and uber.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alphabet-uber-ruling/uber-waymo-trial-delayed-as-u-s-judge-raises-prospect-of-cover-up-idUSKBN1DS26X

http://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Uber-Waymo-case-Dramatic-turn-as-judge-says-Uber-12388930.php

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-uber-waymo-20171128-story.html

good corporate espionage shit. including ex-CIA agents (check the LA times article)

Edited by Chthonic_Goat_666 ()

#223
Post rating: ~

Chthonic_Goat_666 posted:

uber loss of 743 million in Q3 2017

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/r-ubers-third-quarter-adj-loss-widens-to-743-mln---ft-2017-11-1009867861

lol. about 5.9 billion to go now i think.



here's a bloomberg article giving us the $1.5 billion 2017 q3 losses number

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/uber-s-third-quarter-loss-is-said-to-widen-to-1-46-billion

that bloomberg article also says that losses were $1.1 in 2017 q2. but i had previously (in late august 2017) cited a ~$645 million 2017 q2 number, eg:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uber-profitability-results/uber-second-quarter-bookings-increase-loss-narrows-idUSKCN1B32FW

so what's happening here? is uber even more fucked than they were letting on? or is this some accounting quirk.

Edited by Chthonic_Goat_666 ()

#224
Post rating: ~
ok this eric newcomer guy explains it a bit on twitter... hopefully itll embed ok.



im assuming "one time losses" are things like fines lol.
#225
Post rating: ~
uber is so fucked lol. looks like they may have more like 4.6 billion remaining? according to my calculations.

Edited by Chthonic_Goat_666 ()

#226
[account deactivated]
#227
Post rating: +
#228
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#229
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dont be mean to the nice bloomberg uber guy who is answering my question
#230
Post rating: ~
uber / waymo trial rescheduled for February 5 2018 to give google more time to build their case



and

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/11/uber-says-whistleblower-was-extorting-the-company/
#231
Post rating: ~

Chthonic_Goat_666 posted:

dont be mean to the nice bloomberg uber guy who is answering my question


sorry it was the snap glasses that made me do it

#232
Post rating: +
also you might like this:

https://economicsofimperialism.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/dimensions-of-economic-power-todays-key.html

#233
Post rating: +

Chthonic_Goat_666 posted:




https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-01/uber-investor-shervin-pishevar-accused-of-sexual-misconduct-by-multiple-women

#234
Post rating: +
are bloomberg articles fucking up for others? maybe i should be copy/paste full length articles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-01/will-uber-ever-stop-the-bleeding

As worrying as the depths of Uber's loss, is its trajectory. Even when you look at the numbers as Uber likes to count them, the company's loss grew by 15 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months. At the end of the first half of this year, Uber had $6.6 billion cash on hand so it won't run out anytime soon.



"wont run out anytime soon" = will run out in a year or so if current cash burn rate continues

#235
Post rating: ~
is the cash spend just them subsidising rides?
#236
UNUSUALY COOL
Post rating: ~
and fighting legal battles in the courts and the news and lobbying for shotgun marriages to local governments
#237
Post rating: +

tears posted:

is the cash spend just them subsidising rides?



i think its a lot of different things

-subsidising rides, free promotional rides and so on
-lobbying, lawyers, fines etc
-incentives for new drivers. when they come to a new market uber give very good pay, luring taxi drivers, pizza delivery boys etc to quit their old jobs. then uber inevitably cut the rates to try to stop the haemorrhaging. uber has a very fast employee turnover so they often give one-off bonuses for new drivers signing up. they also sometimes give bonuses for drivers who refer other drivers to signup iirc.
-schemes like lending out cars (to try to trap drivers with indebtedness) which actually lost them money lol
-getting the best PR guys like david plouffe. im sure they dont come cheap
-i assume a lot of management and IT type stuff, they're always tweaking the app and the algorithms used to calculate pay. think about all the people needed to process things like passenger complaints.
-spending maybe 100 million dollars on a new CEO?
-programs like uberpool and ubereats which lead to even more subsidies i think.

#238
Post rating: ~
i mean, think even of things like internet ads. what taxi company ever spent money on shit like that before uber with their carefully cultivated sleek tech bro image
#239
Dont Mess With Sucess
Post rating: ~
i wonder how much has been wasted from every time they got kicked tf out of a city or country and lost whatever they developed and had to pay managerial severances and so forth
#240
Post rating: +
here's another thing they're probably losing money on that i just thought of. here's my local uber "greenlight hub"



maybe my perception has been colored by the 70s-80s sitcom Taxi but im guessing most taxis dont spend on lavish HQs like this. do you really need all those computers like you're an apple store? do you really need all those employees? shouldn't you just be making people queue?

of course there's a big property bubble here so maybe they can get some of that money back when they sell. i hope theyre not renting lol